JPM Q3 Deep Dive: Markets Revenue and Consumer Resilience Drive Results Amid Credit and Expense Headwinds

October 15, 2025 at 01:30 AM EDT

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Global financial services giant JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported Q3 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with sales up 7.2% year on year to $46.43 billion. Its GAAP profit of $5.07 per share was 5.4% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy JPM? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:

Revenue: $46.43 billion vs analyst estimates of $45.28 billion (7.2% year-on-year growth, 2.5% beat)
EPS (GAAP): $5.07 vs analyst estimates of $4.81 (5.4% beat)
Adjusted Operating Income: $19.44 billion vs analyst estimates of $21.07 billion (41.9% margin, 7.7% miss)
Market Capitalization: $822.3 billion

StockStory’s Take

JPMorgan Chase delivered third-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s revenue and earnings expectations, underpinned by robust growth in markets-related revenues and continued strength in consumer banking. Management credited higher asset management and investment banking fees, as well as increased payment activity, for powering revenue expansion. CFO Jeremy Barnum noted, “Revenue was up predominantly driven by higher markets revenue as well as higher fees across asset management, investment banking, and payment.” While credit costs increased, largely due to a few isolated incidents in wholesale lending, overall credit performance in both wholesale and consumer businesses remained in line with expectations.

Looking ahead, management’s guidance is shaped by ongoing growth in client account acquisition, evolving deposit trends, and the macroeconomic landscape’s potential impact on consumer and wholesale credit. Barnum pointed out that while the consumer remains resilient, there is increased focus on signs of labor market softening and evolving consumer savings rates. He stated, “We remain quite confident about the overall long-term trajectory here and optimistic, but the macro environment shift has just slightly pushed out some of the growth inflection dynamics.” Management also highlighted that expense discipline and productivity initiatives, including those related to artificial intelligence, will be critical as the company navigates potential headwinds in 2026.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed revenue growth to strong capital markets activity and resilient consumer trends, while margin pressures stemmed from elevated expenses and isolated credit events.

Markets revenue surge: Higher activity in fixed income, equity, and securitized products drove capital markets revenue, with notable outperformance in prime brokerage as client activity increased.
Consumer banking resilience: The consumer and small business segment continued to show stability, aided by higher revolving balances and new account growth, despite management closely monitoring potential labor market weakness.
Asset and wealth management inflows: Record net inflows in asset and wealth management were fueled by strong client demand for both fixed income and equity products, leading to higher management fees and increased assets under management.
Wholesale credit normalization: Charge-offs in wholesale lending rose due to isolated events, including a $170 million loss from the Tricolor incident, but management emphasized overall portfolio credit quality remains stable.
Expense growth drivers: Expenses increased year over year, reflecting higher volume, revenue-related costs, and continued investment in technology and talent. Management noted that ongoing discipline and productivity efforts, such as leveraging artificial intelligence, are intended to mitigate future expense growth.

Drivers of Future Performance

JPMorgan Chase’s forward outlook is shaped by expectations around sustained client growth, evolving deposit balances, and disciplined expense management amid a shifting macroeconomic environment.

Deposit and account growth: Management expects continued net new account openings to support deposit growth, but acknowledges that lower personal savings rates and increased investment flows could delay inflection points in average balances per customer.
Credit and economic headwinds: The company is monitoring risks tied to labor market softness and potential deterioration in consumer credit, with Barnum cautioning that “the fact that things are fine now does not mean they are guaranteed to be great forever.”
Expense and productivity initiatives: While expense growth is likely due to labor and medical cost inflation, management is prioritizing productivity gains, including those from artificial intelligence, to help offset these pressures and maintain competitive compensation.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In future quarters, the StockStory team will focus on (1) trends in deposit growth and consumer spending resilience, (2) normalization in wholesale and consumer credit quality, especially as labor market conditions evolve, and (3) the impact of ongoing expense discipline and AI-driven productivity initiatives on cost growth. Progress in capital markets activity and continued net inflows in asset and wealth management will also be key markers for tracking execution.

JPMorgan Chase currently trades at $302.44, down from $307.94 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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