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Organon (OGN): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q4 Earnings?

By: StockStory

April 07, 2025 at 05:06 AM EDT

OGN Cover Image

Organon has gotten torched over the last six months - since October 2024, its stock price has dropped 29.4% to a new 52-week low of $12.79 per share. This was partly driven by its softer quarterly results and may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is now the time to buy Organon, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Even with the cheaper entry price, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why we avoid OGN and a stock we'd rather own.

Why Do We Think Organon Will Underperform?

Spun off from Merck in 2021 to create a company dedicated to addressing unmet needs in women's health, Organon (NYSE: OGN) is a global healthcare company focused on improving women's health through prescription therapies, medical devices, biosimilars, and established medicines.

1. Revenue Spiraling Downwards

Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Organon’s demand was weak over the last five years as its sales fell at a 3.6% annual rate. This wasn’t a great result and is a sign of poor business quality. Organon Quarterly Revenue

2. Shrinking Adjusted Operating Margin

Adjusted operating margin is an important measure of profitability as it shows the portion of revenue left after accounting for all core expenses – everything from the cost of goods sold to advertising and wages. It’s also useful for comparing profitability across companies because it excludes non-recurring expenses, interest on debt, and taxes.

Looking at the trend in its profitability, Organon’s adjusted operating margin decreased by 17.3 percentage points over the last five years. Even though its historical margin was healthy, shareholders will want to see Organon become more profitable in the future. Its adjusted operating margin for the trailing 12 months was 29.2%.

Organon Trailing 12-Month Operating Margin (Non-GAAP)

3. EPS Trending Down

Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

Organon’s full-year EPS dropped 106%, or 19.8% annually, over the last four years. We tend to steer our readers away from companies with falling revenue and EPS, where diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences. If the tide turns unexpectedly, Organon’s low margin of safety could leave its stock price susceptible to large downswings.

Organon Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

Final Judgment

We cheer for all companies serving everyday consumers, but in the case of Organon, we’ll be cheering from the sidelines. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at 3.2× forward price-to-earnings (or $12.79 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are better investments elsewhere. Let us point you toward a fast-growing restaurant franchise with an A+ ranch dressing sauce.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Organon

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs.

While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,183% between December 2019 and December 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like Sterling Infrastructure (+1,096% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free.

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