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The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From CoreCivic’s Q1 Earnings Call

By: StockStory

CXW Cover Image

CoreCivic’s first quarter results were met with a negative market reaction, despite the company delivering revenue and non-GAAP profit above Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the quarter’s performance to improved facility utilization and cost management, with CEO Damon Hininger highlighting “meaningful increases in facility utilization, which improved to 77% from 75.2% in the first quarter of the prior year.” The reactivation of key immigration facilities and expanded state contracts helped offset the impact of contract losses from the prior year, though operating margins declined due to changes in the mix of facility usage.

Is now the time to buy CXW? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

CoreCivic (CXW) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $488.6 million vs analyst estimates of $476.5 million (2.4% year-on-year decline, 2.5% beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.23 vs analyst estimates of $0.13 (79.7% beat)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $80.99 million vs analyst estimates of $70.87 million (16.6% margin, 14.3% beat)
  • EBITDA guidance for the full year is $335 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $322.8 million
  • Operating Margin: 9.7%, down from 10.9% in the same quarter last year
  • Average available beds : 66,776, down 2,622 year on year
  • Market Capitalization: $2.43 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions CoreCivic’s Q1 Earnings Call

  • Joe Gomes (Noble Capital): asked about the likelihood of additional letter agreements with ICE and the pace of facility activations. CEO Damon Hininger indicated more agreements could be forthcoming as ICE seeks to secure capacity ahead of budget reconciliation.
  • Jay McCanless (Wedbush): questioned revenue potential from expanded transportation services for ICE. Hininger noted revenues would depend on final contract terms but highlighted increased investment in transportation capacity.
  • M. Marin (Zacks): inquired about CoreCivic’s ability to negotiate higher per diem rates before losing competitive cost advantages. Hininger said CoreCivic remains cost-competitive due to existing infrastructure and scalable services, even as new solutions are considered.
  • Greg Gibas (Northland Securities): requested clarity on the drivers behind the increased EBITDA guidance and timing for converting letter contracts to long-term agreements. CFO David Garfinkle cited the Dilley reactivation and sustained ICE population levels as main drivers, with contract finalizations expected in the coming months.
  • Benjamin Briggs (StoneX Financial): asked about the timeline to reach peak EBITDA if all idle facilities are activated. Management stated that reaching peak run-rate profitability could be feasible by the second half of 2026, depending on government demand and funding.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In future quarters, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) progress on converting short-term letter contracts into long-term facility agreements with ICE and other federal agencies, (2) the pace of facility activations and occupancy ramp-up, especially at the Dilley and California City centers, and (3) the impact of congressional budget decisions on funding for detention services. Execution against these milestones and successful rate negotiations with state partners will be key indicators of CoreCivic’s ability to drive sustainable revenue and margin improvement.

CoreCivic currently trades at $22.29, down from $22.62 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

The Best Stocks for High-Quality Investors

Market indices reached historic highs following Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is clouded by new trade policies that could impact business confidence and growth.

While this has caused many investors to adopt a "fearful" wait-and-see approach, we’re leaning into our best ideas that can grow regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate. Take advantage of Mr. Market by checking out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.

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