Q1 Earnings Outperformers: Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) And The Rest Of The Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks

July 10, 2025 at 23:38 PM EDT

AGO Cover Image

Looking back on property & casualty insurance stocks’ Q1 earnings, we examine this quarter’s best and worst performers, including Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) and its peers.

Property & Casualty (P&C) insurers protect individuals and businesses against financial loss from damage to property or from legal liability. This is a cyclical industry, and the sector benefits when there is 'hard market', characterized by strong premium rate increases that outpace loss and cost inflation, resulting in robust underwriting margins. The opposite is true in a 'soft market'. Interest rates also matter, as they determine the yields earned on fixed-income portfolios. On the other hand, P&C insurers face a major secular headwind from the increasing frequency and severity of catastrophe losses due to climate change. Furthermore, the liability side of the business is pressured by 'social inflation'—the trend of rising litigation costs and larger jury awards.

The 33 property & casualty insurance stocks we track reported a mixed Q1. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 2.4%.

While some property & casualty insurance stocks have fared somewhat better than others, they have collectively declined. On average, share prices are down 2.3% since the latest earnings results.

Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO)

Serving as a financial safety net for over $11 trillion in debt service payments since its founding in 2003, Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO) provides credit protection products that guarantee scheduled payments on municipal bonds, infrastructure projects, and structured finance obligations.

Assured Guaranty reported revenues of $345 million, up 40.8% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 74.7%. Overall, it was an incredible quarter for the company with a solid beat of analysts’ EPS and net premiums earned estimates.

“Assured Guaranty produced strong first quarter 2025 results,” said Dominic Frederico, President and CEO.

Assured Guaranty achieved the biggest analyst estimates beat of the whole group. Investor expectations, however, were likely higher than Wall Street’s published projections, leaving some wishing for even better results (analysts’ consensus estimates are those published by big banks and advisory firms, not the investors who make buy and sell decisions). The stock is down 1.5% since reporting and currently trades at $83.22.

Is now the time to buy Assured Guaranty? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free.

Best Q1: Root (NASDAQ: ROOT)

Pioneering a data-driven approach that rewards good driving habits, Root (NASDAQ: ROOT) is a technology-driven auto insurance company that uses mobile apps to acquire customers and data science to price policies based on individual driving behavior.

Root reported revenues of $349.4 million, up 37.1% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 9.1%. The business had an incredible quarter with an impressive beat of analysts’ EPS and net premiums earned estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 13.6% since reporting. It currently trades at $121.20.

Is now the time to buy Root? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free.

Weakest Q1: Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF)

Issuing more title insurance policies than any other company in the United States, Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF) provides title insurance and escrow services for real estate transactions while also offering annuities and life insurance through its F&G subsidiary.

Fidelity National Financial reported revenues of $2.73 billion, down 17.3% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 17.9%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates.

Fidelity National Financial delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. As expected, the stock is down 19.5% since the results and currently trades at $51.85.

Read our full analysis of Fidelity National Financial’s results here.

Essent Group (NYSE: ESNT)

Serving as a crucial bridge between homebuyers and the American dream of homeownership, Essent Group (NYSE: ESNT) provides private mortgage insurance and title services that enable lenders to offer home loans with down payments of less than 20%.

Essent Group reported revenues of $317.6 million, up 6.4% year on year. This print surpassed analysts’ expectations by 2.1%. Taking a step back, it was a mixed quarter as it logged EPS in line with analysts’ estimates.

The stock is down 3.2% since reporting and currently trades at $56.77.

Read our full, actionable report on Essent Group here, it’s free.

The Hanover Insurance Group (NYSE: THG)

Founded in 1852 during a time when fire insurance was crucial for protecting businesses and homes, The Hanover Insurance Group (NYSE: THG) provides property and casualty insurance products through independent agents, serving individuals, small businesses, and mid-sized companies.

The Hanover Insurance Group reported revenues of $1.62 billion, up 4.9% year on year. This result missed analysts’ expectations by 1.7%. Overall, it was a slower quarter as it also produced a significant miss of analysts’ book value per share and net premiums earned estimates.

The stock is down 1.5% since reporting and currently trades at $163.49.

Read our full, actionable report on The Hanover Insurance Group here, it’s free.

Market Update

The Fed’s interest rate hikes throughout 2022 and 2023 have successfully cooled post-pandemic inflation, bringing it closer to the 2% target. Inflationary pressures have eased without tipping the economy into a recession, suggesting a soft landing. This stability, paired with recent rate cuts (0.5% in September 2024 and 0.25% in November 2024), fueled a strong year for the stock market in 2024. The markets surged further after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, with major indices reaching record highs in the days following the election. Still, questions remain about the direction of economic policy, as potential tariffs and corporate tax changes add uncertainty for 2025.

Want to invest in winners with rock-solid fundamentals? Check out our Strong Momentum Stocks and add them to your watchlist. These companies are poised for growth regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate.

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