What Happened?

Shares of biopharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) fell 4.2% in the afternoon session after the company lowered its full-year earnings forecast, overshadowing second-quarter results that beat revenue expectations. The drugmaker trimmed its adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2025, attributing the cut to a $0.57 per share charge from a partnership with BioNTech. This charge also hit second-quarter net income, which fell compared to the prior year. Beyond the one-time charge, the company's results revealed underlying weakness, as sales from its older drugs declined 14% due to generic competition. Specifically, revenue from the cancer drug Revlimid plunged 38% year-over-year. Even though Bristol-Myers raised its annual sales forecast, the reduced profit outlook appeared to sour investor sentiment.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Bristol-Myers Squibb’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 4 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 20 days ago when the stock dropped 3.5% on the news that a cautious analyst note from UBS highlighting significant upcoming expenses and other headwinds. 

Ahead of its second-quarter earnings report, UBS reiterated its "Neutral" rating on the stock. The firm's note pointed to several challenges, including an expected $1.5 billion expense for in-process research and development (IPR&D) related to a collaboration with BioNTech. This charge is anticipated to reduce the company's earnings per share (EPS) by approximately $0.60. The report also touched on broader investor concerns, such as the impact of Medicare's Part D redesign on several of the company's high-priced drugs and the looming patent expirations for key products. These factors contribute to a more cautious outlook on the pharmaceutical giant's near-term profitability and growth prospects. 

Separately, there was a broad market downturn after the U.S. administration announced a sharp escalation in trade tensions by threatening new tariffs on Canada. The wider market sentiment turned negative after the White House announced plans to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, sparking renewed fears of a trade war. This news prompted a sell-off across major U.S. indexes, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as investors grew concerned about the potential economic impact of escalating protectionist policies. The healthcare sector is especially vulnerable to such tensions due to its deeply integrated supply chains with Canada for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, meaning increased costs and potential disruptions. 

Additionally, ongoing U.S. policy headwinds aimed at lowering drug prices and specific corporate challenges, like those faced by UnitedHealth Group, further compounded the sector's decline. As a result, the Health Care SPDR ETF (XLV) fell 1.0%, underperforming even as major indices pared some losses.

Bristol-Myers Squibb is down 23.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $43.64 per share, it is trading 30.9% below its 52-week high of $63.11 from March 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Bristol-Myers Squibb’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $743.69.

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