CHICAGO, April 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Numerator, a data and tech company serving the market research space, has released findings on U.S. consumer sentiment surrounding the future of the U.S. economy and the impact of recent tariff hikes. Two recent surveys of representative U.S. households, conducted by Numerator in April 2025, reveal growing unrest on the economic front. A majority of households across the political spectrum were found to harbor concerns about tariffs, recession, and stock-market volatility, with only 33% expecting a stronger economy in one year’s time.

Tariff Consumer Impact Survey Findings: 

• Nearly 9 in 10 consumers say they are aware of tariffs. 89% of U.S. shoppers say they are aware of new or proposed tariffs, up from 83% in February 2025 and 53% in December 2024. 
  • As awareness of tariffs grows, so does consumers’ understanding. As tariffs have moved to the forefront of political conversations, 40% of consumers now say they fully grasp how tariffs affect prices, up from 34% in February. Nearly half (48%) say they have a general idea but lack details, while 11% admit having little-to-no understanding of the issue. 
  • Opinion is split on the effectiveness of tariffs. 41% of consumers say tariffs have pros and cons depending on how they are implemented, while 25% say tariffs are harmful, and 23% say they are helpful. The majority of Americans (60%) believe that opinions on tariffs are largely shaped by political affiliation. 
• Consumers are increasingly concerned over how tariffs will impact them financially. 85% of consumers express concern about how tariffs will affect their personal finances and shopping behaviors, up four points from February.
  • Higher prices and product shortages top the list of concerns. 72% of consumers are worried about higher prices on everyday goods (vs. 64% in February), 50% about limited availability of certain products (vs. 44%), 39% about a potential slowdown in economic growth (vs. 25%), and 21% about job or industry impacts (vs. 13%).
  • Consumers are most concerned about groceries and household goods. Shoppers worry most about tariff-related price increases in essential categories like groceries (60%), household goods (42%), and gasoline (40%). All categories except gasoline saw increased concern from February to April, especially household goods (+8 points), automobiles (+7 points), home appliances (+7 points) and personal care products (+6 points). 
• In response, consumers are making changes to their shopping behaviors. 83% of consumers anticipate making changes to their shopping behaviors in preparation for new tariffs. Almost half of consumers say they will look for sales or coupons (48%), followed by delaying purchases until prices stabilize (32%), buying fewer imported goods (32%),  stocking up on items prior to tariff-induced price increases (31%), and switching to U.S.-made alternatives (25%). Switching to U.S.-made products was the only reaction that declined in the past two months (-2 points), while delaying purchases (+10 points) and stocking up (+8 points) saw the largest increases. 

“Consumers are increasingly concerned about the impact of tariffs, both on their own finances and the overall economy,” says Dr. Leo Feler, Chief Economist, Numerator. “This is not just a partisan issue. Consumers across the political spectrum are becoming increasingly concerned. Changes in consumer sentiment are a leading indicator for changes in purchasing behaviors, and if consumers remain this pessimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, we can expect cutbacks in consumption going forward and a potential recession later this year.” 

Tariff and Recession Survey Findings: 

• 72% of U.S. households are very or somewhat concerned about a recession occurring in the coming year. The unease is felt across the political spectrum; even in areas of the country that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump, 63% of households are very or somewhat concerned about an upcoming recession.
• 55% of all U.S. households believe recent tariffs will be bad for the U.S. economy during the next year, while 21% are unsure and 24% believe they will have a positive impact. These sentiments were again represented across the political spectrum, even in areas of the country that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in November.
  • Younger and more educated U.S. households are more likely to think tariffs are bad for the U.S. economy, compared to less educated and older households.
  • Regardless of the income group they belong to, the overwhelming majority of households believe tariffs are bad for the U.S. economy or are unsure—with less than one third believing tariffs will be good for the economy.
• 70% of U.S. households are very or somewhat concerned about the recent stock-market volatility. In areas that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump, the number is 60%.
• 52% of U.S. households think the economy will be worse this time next year, while 16% are unsure and just 33% think it will be better. Households in regions that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump are slightly more optimistic, with 36% believing that the economy will be worse, 15% being unsure, and 49% believing the economy will be better in one year’s time.

For interview and media inquiries regarding U.S. macroeconomic trends and the consumer response, please contact Ray Young, Razor Sharp Public Relations at 512.694.6097 or ray@razorsharppr.com.

Numerator’s Tariff Consumer Impact Survey was fielded on 4/10/2025 to 1,014 U.S. consumers and on 2/11/2025 to 1,023 U.S. consumers. Numerator’s Tariff and Recession Survey was fielded on 4/7/2025 to 1,012 representative U.S. households. 

About Numerator

Numerator is a data and tech company bringing speed and scale to market research. Numerator blends first-party data from over 1 million US households with advanced technology to provide 360-degree consumer understanding for a market-research industry that has been slow to change. Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Numerator has 5,800 employees worldwide; 80 of the top 100 CPG brands’ manufacturers are Numerator clients.

Bob Richter
Numerator
212-802-8588
press@numerator.com