Exercise equipment company Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, but sales fell by 6% year on year to $550.8 million. Guidance for next quarter’s revenue was optimistic at $675 million at the midpoint, 2.2% above analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.06 per share was significantly above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Peloton’s third quarter was marked by a positive market reaction, with management crediting new product introductions and improved operational discipline as key contributors to performance. CEO Peter Stern highlighted the launch of the Cross Training and Pro Series equipment lines, alongside the rollout of AI-powered Peloton IQ, as meaningful drivers. The quarter also saw ongoing cost reduction efforts and a successful shift toward higher-margin products, helping to offset seasonal hardware sales pressure and a decline in connected fitness subscribers.

Looking ahead, Peloton’s guidance is anchored by recent product innovation, expanded retail partnerships, and an emphasis on cost efficiency. Management pointed to the anticipated benefits of new offerings like Peloton IQ, strategic pricing changes, and a focus on premium equipment to drive revenue and margin improvements. CFO Liz Coddington noted, “We are raising our full year guidance for adjusted EBITDA, reflecting our expectation for realizing cost savings faster than previously anticipated.” The company remains vigilant regarding external factors, such as tariffs and recall-related impacts, but maintains confidence in its long-term growth strategy.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s results to a combination of product innovation, retail expansion, and continued cost discipline, with new AI and wellness initiatives supporting member engagement.

• AI-powered personalization: The introduction of Peloton IQ leverages artificial intelligence to provide personalized coaching recommendations, which management believes is increasing engagement and supporting upsell opportunities across the membership base.
• Premium product mix shift: New launches, including the Cross Training Series and Pro Series with advanced features like computer vision and voice control, have driven a favorable mix toward higher-priced equipment, partially offsetting lower overall hardware volumes.
• Retail and distribution expansion: Peloton expanded its U.S. micro store footprint from 1 to 10 locations and secured a partnership with Johnson Fitness & Wellness, broadening physical access and providing more consumers the ability to test new innovations.
• Wellness ecosystem development: Recent acquisitions, such as Breathwrk for mental fitness and collaborations with medical institutions like the Hospital for Special Surgery, indicate an ongoing push beyond cardio into broader wellness categories, adding value to subscriptions.
• Operational cost discipline: The company continued to reduce operating expenses, notably in marketing and general and administrative costs, while executing on a $100 million run rate cost savings plan, contributing to margin improvement despite recall-related costs.

Drivers of Future Performance

Peloton’s outlook is shaped by continued product innovation, expanded distribution, and ongoing efforts to improve profitability through cost control and pricing strategy.

• Product innovation and upgrades: Management expects recent product launches, such as the Cross Training Series and Peloton IQ, to drive renewed interest and higher average selling prices, setting the stage for potential revenue growth inflection later in the year.
• Cost efficiency and tariff management: Enhanced supply chain discipline and favorable tariff developments are anticipated to support margin expansion, with the company raising its gross margin and adjusted EBITDA targets as a result.
• Churn and market headwinds: While management projects subscription churn will increase in the near term due to pricing changes and recall-related pauses, the expectation is for churn rates to stabilize and member reactivation to offset declines in the latter part of the year.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analyst team will be focused on (1) monitoring the ramp-up and consumer adoption of new equipment lines and Peloton IQ features, (2) evaluating the effectiveness of expanded retail partnerships and micro store performance during the holiday season, and (3) tracking progress on cost reduction initiatives and gross margin improvement. The ongoing integration of wellness offerings and the commercial business expansion will also be key indicators of whether Peloton’s strategy is translating into sustainable growth.

Peloton currently trades at $7.61, up from $6.73 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

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