What Happened?

Shares of mobile app advertising platform AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) jumped 13.4% in the afternoon session after the company reported strong first quarter 2025 results which included a beat on both revenue and EBITDA, and also featured next quarter's optimistic EBITDA guidance that exceeded analysts' expectations. Revenue grew 40% from a year ago, driven by the surge in advertising, which more than offset a 14% decline in its legacy apps business, a segment the company is now exiting through a pending sale. Overall, we think this was a solid quarter with some key areas of upside.

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What The Market Is Telling Us

AppLovin’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 57 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for AppLovin and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 15 days ago when the stock gained 10.5% on the news that President Trump clarified that he had no intention of removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a statement that helped calm markets. Earlier remarks had sparked fears of political interference in decision making at the central bank. With Trump walking back his earlier comments, investors likely felt more assured that monetary policy decisions would continue to be guided by data, not drama. That kept the Fed's word credible, and more importantly, gave investors a steadier compass to figure out where rates and the markets were headed next. 

Adding to the positive news, the president made constructive comments on US-China trade talks, noting that the tariffs imposed on China were "very high, and it won't be that high. ... No, it won't be anywhere near that high. It'll come down substantially. But it won't be zero." 

Also, a key force at the center of the stock market's massive two-day rally was the frantic behavior of short sellers covering their losses. Hedge fund short sellers recently added more bearish wagers in both single stocks and securities tied to macro developments after the whipsaw early April triggered by President Donald Trump's tariff rollout and abrupt 90-day pause, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. The increased short position in the market created an environment prone to dramatic upswings due to this artificial buying force. A short seller borrows an asset and quickly sells it; when the security decreases in price, they buy it back more cheaply to profit from the difference.

AppLovin is up 1.3% since the beginning of the year, but at $346.19 per share, it is still trading 32.1% below its 52-week high of $510.13 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of AppLovin’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $5,312.

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