Why Moderna (MRNA) Stock Is Trading Lower Today

August 01, 2025 at 12:20 PM EDT

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What Happened?

Shares of biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) fell 7.1% in the afternoon session after the company trimmed the upper end of its 2025 revenue forecast, citing a delay in vaccine shipments. The company pointed to a delay in vaccine deliveries to the United Kingdom, which it pushed into the first quarter of 2026. This news overshadowed second-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations. For the quarter, Moderna's revenue dropped about 41% from the previous year to $142 million, driven by lower sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. Despite the revenue decline, the company successfully narrowed its net loss as its cost-cutting measures took effect. Adding to the pressure, Moderna also announced plans to reduce its workforce by 10% and confirmed a delay in the U.S. approval for its combined COVID-flu vaccine until 2026.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Moderna’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 53 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 4.9% on the news that industry bellwether UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slashed its 2025 profit forecast after reporting a significant surge in medical costs, sending shockwaves across the health insurance sector.

The core of the issue stems from an “unprecedented medical cost trend environment,” particularly within the Medicare Advantage market, which are privately run versions of the federal health insurance program. UnitedHealth, the largest provider in this space, now expects these costs to rise by 7.5% in 2025, a significant jump from its earlier 5% projection, with the potential to accelerate to almost 10% in 2026. In response, the insurer announced it will drop plans covering over 600,000 people. The company's lowered earnings forecast has raised investor concerns that these surging costs and utilization rates are an industry-wide problem, impacting the profitability of other carriers as well.

Moderna is down 34.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $27.47 per share, it is trading 70.8% below its 52-week high of $94.17 from July 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Moderna’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $352.27.

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Why Moderna (MRNA) Stock Is Trading Lower Today

What Happened?

What Is The Market Telling Us

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