Bitcoin Market Overview (December 20, 2025)

As of December 20, 2025 (UTC), Bitcoin was valued at $88,351 with a market cap of $1.76 trillion and a circulating supply of 19.96 million BTC, which is more than 95% of the maximum supply. In the last 24 hours, BTC gained 1.78%, however, in the past seven days and on the monthly chart, it fell by 2.26% and 4.70%, respectively. This price action indicates the existence of a short-term rebound within a broad corrective phase.

Key market indicators

Indicator Value Change

Current Price: $88,351 +1.78% (24h) | Market Cap: $1.76T –

7-Day Performance: -2.26% Down from $90,307 to $88,104

30-Day Performance: -4.70% Mid-term Correction

Circulating Supply: 19,964,509 BTC 95.1% away from the 21 million cap

Technical Analysis and On-Chain Analysis

Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicators

Short-Term (1-4 Hours): Showing bullish momentum

RSI: 1 Hour 59 (Neutral), 4 Hour 54 (Neutral)

MACD: 1 Hour Histogram +3.8, 4 Hour +283 (Strongly Bullish)

Bollinger Bands: Price near 1 Hour Upper Band $88,705, 4 Hour Middle Band $87,178

Medium-Long-Term (Daily-Weekly): Showing oversold signals

Daily RSI: 45 (Slightly Weak)

Weekly RSI: 38 (Oversold Zone)

Daily Price: Below 50-Day Moving Average $93,598 and 200-Day Moving Average $108,001

Weekly Bollinger Bands: Price well below the Middle Band $106,376

Derivatives Market Dynamics

Futures Market:

Open Interest: $59 billion (24-hour +1.12%)

Funding Rate: Binance +0.003% (Long positions paid), Bybit -0.0007% (Short positions paid, bullish)

24-hour liquidation: Total $80 million, of which $46 million were short liquidations > $35 million were long liquidations (bullish squeeze)

Options Market:

Open Interest: $52 billion (-3.8% 24h)

Biggest Pain Point: Concentrated between $88,000 and $90,000

Liquidation Risk Distribution:

Long Cluster: $85,000-$87,500 (approximately $996 million cumulatively)

Short Cluster: $88,500-$91,000 (approximately $1.1 billion cumulatively

On-Chain Data Insights

Network Activity (as of December 18):

Daily Active Addresses: 512,603

Weekly Active Addresses: 2,760,238

Monthly Active Addresses: 10,444,487

Daily Transactions: 463,881

Supply Distribution and Holder Behavior:

Exchange Reserves: 2.77 million BTC (December 19), net outflow of approximately 2,500 BTC over 30 days

Long-Term Holder Supply:

14.34 million BTC (December 17), reaching an 8-month low

Loss Supply: 6.7 million BTC (23.7% circulating supply), the highest in this cycle

MVRV Ratio: Below 3 (Not overheated, historical cycle top > 6)

Key Signals:

Exchange reserves have been declining continuously, with 11 days of net outflow in the past 30 days, accumulating an outflow of approximately 15,000 BTC.

Long-term holders have experienced a third wave of distribution (breaking the historical single-wave pattern).

360,000 BTC were sold by long-term holders at a loss, indicating mature losses and potential capitulation.

BTC OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-12-20 05:23 UTC

BTC options open interest and max pain data by exchange and expiration date

BTC liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-12-20 05:23 UTC

2026 Market Outlook

Mainstream institutions predict

Institutional 2026 Target Prices and Core Rationale:

J.P. Morgan: $170,000 – Accelerated institutional adoption

Fundstrat: $200,000-$250,000 – Liquidity injection + ETF demand

Standard Chartered: $150,000 – Conservative estimate (downgraded)

Grayscale: New ATH (Q1-Q2) – Cyclical breakout

Bitwise: New ATH (within the year) – Regulatory support + adoption growth

Bullish Catalysts:

Monetary Policy Shift: Expected Fed rate cut in 2026, with monthly T-Bill repurchase operations injecting $500 billion in liquidity (the largest since 2021).

Institutional Allocation Expansion: Cumulative holdings of over 1 million BTC in spot ETFs, with institutional portfolios allocating 1-3% of assets.

Government Reserves: US states exploring BTC reserves (e.g., Texas’s $5 million allocation).

Regulatory Clarity: Crypto-friendly policies and progress in stablecoin legislation.

Halving Effect: Continuation of the historic cycle after the April 2024 halving (although the current gains are weaker).

Bearish Risk Factors:

ETF Outflows: Continuous net outflows in mid-December (December 15 – $357.6 million, December 16 – $277.2 million).

Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Economic policy uncertainty index averages 317 (higher than historical cycles).

Weakening Halving Effect: Only +56% one year after the 2024 halving (far lower than the +541% in 2020).

Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure: The third wave of distribution breaks the historical single-wave pattern.

Legislative stagnation: Major crypto legislation in 2026 has still not progressed.

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario (60% probability): Weekly RSI 38 oversold + declining exchange reserves support a Q1 rebound to $95,000-$100,000.

Breakout above $100,000 targets $120,000-$150,000 (close to conservative institutional forecasts).

Key Support: $84,000 (uptrend failure line).

Bearish Scenario (40% probability): Continued below the weekly Bollinger Band middle line at $106,000 may lead to a pullback to the $83,000 liquidation support zone.

CVDD model predicts a bottom around $80,000.

Key Resistance: $89,000-$90,000 (daily moving average + options’ biggest pain point).

Introduction to Poain Stablecoin Staking Passive Income

Amidst increased volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets, Poain BlockEnergy Inc. claims to offer a solution for generating passive income through stablecoin staking.

Platform Product Overview: Poain is an AI-powered multi-currency staking platform, registered in Colorado on July 8, 2020. Its stablecoin staking products are primarily based on USDT and USDC, and it offers the following “Lucky Day” promotions:

Investment Amount | Term | Total Return | Net Return | Daily Rate of Return | Annualized Rate of Return

$2,000 | 7 days | $231 | $231 | 1.65% | ~602%

$100,000 | 5 days | $12,500 | $12,500 | 2.5% | ~912%

$100,000 | 50 days | $200,000 | $100,000 | 2.0% | ~730%

Poain Platform Features:

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Security Architecture: Multi-signature wallet, separate cold and hot wallets

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PEB Token Presale

Poain Coin (PEB) claims to be currently in presale:

Current Price: $0.008 USDT

Planned Listing Price: $2.5 USDT (312x growth)

Total Supply: 2 billion tokens

Minimum Purchase: 100 USDT

Conclusion:

Bitcoin exhibited technical oversold signals (weekly RSI 38) and signs of on-chain accumulation (declining exchange reserves) at the end of 2025, laying the foundation for a potential rebound in 2026. Mainstream institutions predict a target price of $150,000-$250,000, but face downside risks such as ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties.

However, when exploring passive income opportunities, investors must have a strong commitment to stable returns. The Poain platform offers stable annualized returns of 600-900%, guarantees principal and returns, and operates under multiple security regulatory bodies.

Business: Poain BlockEnergy Inc.

Website: https://poaintoken.com

Email: marketing1@poain.com