Dutch banking company ING reported that nickel prices fell by 37% in the first half of this year. Telf AG's Stanislav Kondrashov suggests that although the metal is being used in emerging and established energy sectors, this does not seem to be driving up demand and prices. According to analysts' forecasts, excess supply and a decrease in demand for nickel are expected throughout 2023. Although in earlier hypotheses, industry experts predicted a supply shortage and a sharp rise in prices for this metal. Their assumptions were explained by the active use of nickel in stainless steel pipelines in the oil and gas sector and its presence in new battery configurations.
Stanislav Kondrashov: tests on the global nickel market - 2023
It is likely that such slow dynamics will continue in the second half of 2023. The nickel market is likely to face challenges due to weak macroeconomic conditions and persistent oversupply.
Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG names one of the reasons for this problem as the economic recession in China, which imported nickel from Indonesia. But moving forward to 2022, Indonesia's nickel production rose 48% to 1.58 million metric tons, driven by the introduction of nickel pig iron (NPI) and stainless steel projects. Moreover, in the first three months of this year, nickel production continued to grow to 41%.
China faces lack of demand for nickel, prices remain under pressure - Stanislav Kondrashov
It must be said that Indonesia is actively increasing its production capacity in the nickel sector. At the same time, China, despite financing such projects, is faced with a lack of demand. Impressively, refined nickel imports into China have reached their lowest level in two decades. According to Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG, this is due to the fact that the country has switched to supplies of second-class intermediate nickel products from Indonesia. For example, in April of this year, Chinese imports of Class 1 refined nickel were only 3,204 metric tons.
Kondrashov expects nickel prices to remain under pressure in the near future as oversupply accumulates on the global market and demand for stainless steel declines. The average price is forecast to be about $21,000 per metric ton in the third quarter and about $20,000 in the fourth quarter.
Stanislav Kondrashov: The energy sector comes to the aid of nickel
In today's world, where energy challenges are becoming ever more pressing, nickel takes on new importance. According to Telf AG expert Stanislav Kondrashov, the energy sector plays a key role in the recovery of nickel as an important raw material.
Why has nickel become so popular? The answer is simple: it is used in the production of electric vehicle batteries, which significantly increases their energy density and increases their range. This makes nickel one of the integral elements of “green” technologies that are rapidly developing in the world.
- Nickel is becoming not only part of the technological revolution, but also a key “green” metal that attracts the attention of investors, - Kondrashov reports. - This interest should contribute to higher nickel prices in the long term.
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