LOS ANGELES, Dec. 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- As Wall Street enters prediction season, Payden & Rygel is taking a different approach: calling out the errors baked into the stories investors are telling themselves about 2026. Rather than offering a traditional forecast or year ahead target, the commentary argues that misconceptions, not missing data, are what derail investors.
In its newly released commentary, 2026 Macro Outlook: Avoiding Errors, the firm’s economics team examined 16 of the most common market narratives circulating today and elevates six that are most likely to mislead investors.
“Rising economic uncertainty this year makes 2026 forecasts exceptionally tricky. However, we never have a complete set of data to paint a perfect picture of the economy, where it’s headed, and how best to position our portfolios. Investors always face an uncertain future”, said Jeffrey Cleveland, Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel.
“When uncertainty rises, investors don’t just misread the data, they cling to seductive narratives that often fall apart under scrutiny. Our goal this year is simple: help investors avoid the biggest thinking traps before they become costly errors.”
Cleveland continues, “If we can chip away at investor confidence in just a few of these popular narratives, we might help them avoid errors that hurt their portfolio. One of the key reasons experts miss the future is that misconceptions cloud their thinking in the present.”
The Six Narratives Most Likely to Steer Investors Wrong in 2026
From the full list of 16 narratives, Payden highlights six:
- “There’s insufficient data for policymakers to make decisions.”
- “Strong GDP growth will stop the Fed from cutting.”
- “Core inflation will remain stuck at 3%.”
- “The AI boom is a bubble that is going to burst.”
- “The 10-year Treasury yield can’t fall below 4% even if inflation is 2% while growth is 2%.”
- “In a tech-driven recession, the U.S. dollar will weaken.”
Each narrative contains a plausible hook — but, according to Payden, none holds up to an evidence-based examination.
A Challenge to Forecast Culture
With uncertainty elevated, the firm argues that investors need fewer point predictions and more tools to interrogate the logic behind them.
“Debunking is more valuable than forecasting,” Cleveland added. “Instead of telling investors what will happen in 2026, the analysis helps them navigate what could happen by avoiding the traps that often lead to poor decisions. If investors can avoid these traps they will be better positioned for whatever 2026 brings.”
The complete 2026 Macro Outlook: Avoiding Errors, including analysis of all 16 narratives, is available here.
About Payden & Rygel
Payden & Rygel is one of the largest privately-owned global investment advisers, managing approximately $165.7 billion in assets. Founded in 1983, the firm specializes in the active management of fixed income and equity portfolios, serving a diverse range of institutional clients worldwide. With clients that include central banks, pension funds, foundations, and corporations, Payden & Rygel offers a comprehensive suite of investment strategies through separately managed accounts, US mutual funds, and Irish-domiciled funds (subject to investor eligibility). Headquartered in Los Angeles, the firm also maintains offices in Boston, London and Milan. To learn more, visit www.payden.com.
This material reflects the firm's current opinion and is subject to change without notice. Sources for the material contained herein are deemed reliable but cannot be guaranteed. This material is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or buy any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Media Contact: Kate Ennis, ennis@daipartnerspr.com, (301)580-6726
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