Corporate leaders are confident their investments in AI will deliver financial rewards by the end of the decade. What remains far less certain is how those returns will actually be generated.
Based on a recent survey of senior executives by the IBM Institute for Business Value, 79% expect AI programs to drive positive revenue within the next four years. Yet fewer than one in four respondents can point to a specific source for that future income.
According to the survey report titled The Enterprise in 2030, executives who succeed will be those who can push ambitious AI agendas while navigating organizational, technical, and financial constraints.
IBM Consulting senior VP Mohamad Ali describes the imbalance between optimism and execution as one of the central management challenges of the coming years. The company argues that hesitation could be more damaging than miscalculation. In IBM’s view, by 2030, competitive advantage will depend less on long-term roadmaps and more on an organization’s ability to disrupt its market repeatedly and quickly.
Salima Lin, a managing partner at IBM Consulting and a coauthor of the new report, says most leaders have accepted that AI will reshape their industries, even if the path forward remains unclear. Executives, she notes, understand where the market is heading but are still working out how to reach that destination. Those that close that gap first are likely to pull ahead of competitors.
Not everyone shares that optimism. Some industry observers view the findings as further proof that enthusiasm for AI is still running ahead of reality. Zoi North America’s managing director, Danilo Kirschner, describes the prevailing mindset as faith-driven rather than evidence-based. While he sees real promise in AI, he expects a correction period beginning this year, when inflated expectations give way to closer scrutiny of costs and returns.
Kirschner predicts that technology leaders will increasingly be rewarded for shutting down ineffective AI projects rather than launching expansive new ones. He also anticipates a shift toward smaller, purpose-built models designed to automate narrow tasks. These systems, he says, are typically less expensive, easier to manage, and better suited to clean, well-defined data sets. Investor patience, he adds, is wearing thin as companies pour billions into broad AI platforms without clear payback.
Similar concerns are echoed by Magnus Slind-Näslund, chief technology officer at Lokalise. He argues that many organizations are committing to AI without a defined business case. According to Slind-Näslund, meaningful revenue only follows when AI is applied to concrete, inefficient processes rather than adopted as a blanket solution.
Others point to early successes as proof that targeted approaches can work. Farah Hirth, director of technology and AI at financial services firm Gain Servicing, says her company has improved software development speed and claims handling through targeted AI tools. She believes progress starts with closely examining internal workflows and identifying specific pain points.
Hirth cautions against treating AI as a standalone strategy but also warns against hesitation. In her view, organizations that move too cautiously risk falling behind competitors willing to experiment.
Lin agrees that delay carries its own risks. She urges technology leaders to align AI initiatives with broader business objectives and to begin exploring new applications now. As AI systems continue to improve, she says, those who wait for perfect clarity may find themselves excluded from the next wave of innovation.
Other entities like AI Maverick Intel Inc. (OTC: AIMV) could also serve as additional examples of enterprises that are leveraging AI in ways that bring tangible benefits within their operations and services.
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