Dating app company Match (NASDAQ: MTCH) met Wall Streets revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 2.1% year on year to $914.3 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $870 million was less impressive, coming in 1.8% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $0.62 per share was 2.1% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Match Group (MTCH) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $914.3 million vs analyst estimates of $914.3 million (2.1% year-on-year growth, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.62 vs analyst expectations of $0.63 (2.1% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $301 million vs analyst estimates of $333.2 million (32.9% margin, 9.7% miss)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $870 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $885.7 million
- EBITDA guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $352.5 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $341.2 million
- Operating Margin: 24.2%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 33.6%, up from 26.7% in the previous quarter
- Payers: 14.53 million, down 687,000 year on year
- Market Capitalization: $7.82 billion
"We've moved quickly to accelerate innovation, strengthen accountability, and build for long-term growth," said CEO Spencer Rascoff.
Company Overview
Originally started as a dial-up service before widespread internet adoption, Match (NASDAQ: MTCH) was an early innovator in online dating and today has a portfolio of apps including Tinder, Hinge, Archer, and OkCupid.
Revenue Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but the best consistently grow over the long haul. Unfortunately, Match Group’s 2.6% annualized revenue growth over the last three years was sluggish. This wasn’t a great result, but there are still things to like about Match Group.
This quarter, Match Group grew its revenue by 2.1% year on year, and its $914.3 million of revenue was in line with Wall Street’s estimates. Company management is currently guiding for a 1.1% year-on-year increase in sales next quarter.
Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 3.9% over the next 12 months, similar to its three-year rate. While this projection indicates its newer products and services will spur better top-line performance, it is still below the sector average. At least the company is tracking well in other measures of financial health.
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Payers
User Growth
As a subscription-based app, Match Group generates revenue growth by expanding both its subscriber base and the amount each subscriber spends over time.
Match Group struggled with new customer acquisition over the last two years as its payers have declined by 4.7% annually to 14.53 million in the latest quarter. This performance isn't ideal because internet usage is secular, meaning there are typically unaddressed market opportunities. If Match Group wants to accelerate growth, it likely needs to enhance the appeal of its current offerings or innovate with new products. 
In Q3, Match Group’s payers once again decreased by 687,000, a 4.5% drop since last year. The quarterly print isn’t too different from its two-year result, suggesting its new initiatives aren’t accelerating user growth just yet.
Revenue Per User
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is a critical metric to track because it measures how much the average user spends. ARPU is also a key indicator of how valuable its users are (and can be over time).
Match Group’s ARPU growth has been impressive over the last two years, averaging 7.9%. Although its payers shrank during this time, the company’s ability to successfully increase monetization demonstrates its platform’s value for existing users. 
This quarter, Match Group’s ARPU clocked in at $20.58. It grew by 6.9% year on year, faster than its payers.
Key Takeaways from Match Group’s Q3 Results
It was encouraging to see Match Group’s EBITDA guidance for next quarter beat analysts’ expectations. On the other hand, its revenue guidance for next quarter missed and its EBITDA fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this quarter was mixed. The stock remained flat at $31.31 immediately after reporting.
Match Group’s earnings report left more to be desired. Let’s look forward to see if this quarter has created an opportunity to buy the stock. The latest quarter does matter, but not nearly as much as longer-term fundamentals and valuation, when deciding if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free for active Edge members.
