Is Denison Mines (DNN) a Hot Uranium Stock Buy?

Toronto, Canada-based Denison Mines Corp. (DNN) is a uranium exploration and development company.  Its flagship project is the 95% interest-owned Wheeler River uranium project in the Athabasca Basin region in northern Saskatchewan.

Recently, DNN announced that it had entered into a binding agreement to make a $15 million strategic investment in F3 Uranium Corp. in the form of unsecured convertible debentures. The gross proceeds from the debentures are expected to be used to develop the Patterson Lake North (PLN) property and for F3’s working capital purposes.

On the other hand, the company’s profitability scenario is quite concerning. Its trailing-12-month ROE, ROTC, and ROTA of -3.26%, -6.07%, and -2.72% compared to the industry averages of 21.57%, 10.60%, and 8.06%, respectively.

Moreover, the stock possesses a stretched valuation. Its forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales ratios of 135.29x and 139.43x are significantly higher than the respective industry averages of 2.19x and 1.52x.

Given this backdrop, let’s look at the trends of DNN’s key financial metrics to understand why it could be wise to avoid the stock now.

Fluctuating Financial Performance: An In-Depth Analysis of Denison Mines Corp's Recent Years

Summary of DNN’s trailing-12-month net income over the period:

• DNN reported a net income of -$19.83 million in the second quarter of 2021.
• There was a significant positive turnaround in the third quarter of 2021, where the net income turned positive at $18.53 million.
• By the end of 2021, the company's net income had grown to $18.98 million.
• The first quarter of 2022 saw an impressive surge, with DNN reporting a net income of $70.48 million.
• However, this trend did not last through the year, with decreasing values through the subsequent quarters.
• By the end of 2023, DNN's net income plunged back into negative, standing at -$14.46 million.

Ranges:

• Throughout 2021, DNN’s net income ranged from -$19.83 million to $18.98 million.
• In 2022, there was a massive climb in the first quarter, ranging from $18.98 million to $70.48 million, followed by decreasing figures to a low of $14.35 million.
• The downward trend continued through 2023, with DNN reporting a net income of -$14.46 million by mid-year.

Growth Rate: From a value of -$16.28 million at the end of 2020 and a value of -$14.46 million in mid-2023, DNN’s net income has not shown a consistent growth or decline pattern through these periods. 

Key Observations:

• The most notable period for DNN was the beginning of 2022, showing a dramatic rise of nearly $51.5 million in the first quarter.
• However, after this sharp increase, the company's net income started sliding down, following a downward trend with fluctuations.
• As of mid-2023, the company has failed to maintain its positive net income from the previous year and reported a negative net income of -$14.46 million.

Note: The company's financial performance appears to be volatile, with significant fluctuations in Net Income over the observed periods. This could indicate an unstable operating environment or potential inherent risks in its business model.

The trailing-12-month revenue of DNN demonstrates a fluctuating trend over the observed period. Here are the key observations:

• Revenue initially begins at approximately $11.63 million in December 2020 and briefly dips to around $11.45 million on the same date before declining further to roughly $10 million by March 2021.
• In June 2021, a slight rebound was seen when revenue increased to about $11.99 million. This is followed by a substantial rise, peaking at approximately $16.74 million by September 2021.
• While there was a minor decrease to nearly $15.63 million by December 2021, Revenue again climbed to its ultimate high of about $18.45 million by June 2022.
• However, the series then entered a period of decline. As of June 2023, revenue had dropped to its lowest point in the series, registering at about $8.03 million.

Looking specifically at the most recent entries in the series, despite hitting a peak in mid-2022, DNN's revenues experienced a notable decrease by year-end 2022, with a continuing downward trend into 2023. The last available data, as of June 2023, shows that revenue is at a significant low compared to previous years.

In terms of growth rate, measuring from the first reported revenue value ($11.63 million in December 2020) to the last reported value ($8.03 million in June 2023), there is a noteworthy decrease of approximately 30.9%.

The gross margin of DNN shows a fluctuating trend throughout the series:

• December 31, 2020: The gross margin stood at 26.5%. This repeated twice in the data series, suggesting an unchanging position at the end of 2020.
• March 31, 2021: A slight decrease to 25.3% is observed in the first quarter of 2021.
• June 30, 2021: There's a significant drop to 22.6% by mid-year.
• September 30, 2021: However, the third quarter of 2021 showed a sharp rebound in their gross margin, reaching 38.5%, the highest peak in a year.
• December 31, 2021: Despite a stable year-round performance, this went slightly down again to 35.5% at the end of 2021.
• March 31, 2022: DNN started 2022 positively with a gross margin of 38% but couldn't reach the previous peak.
• June 30, 2022: Mid-2022 saw the highest gross margin yet, reaching 43.8%.
• September 30, 2022: By the third quarter, there was a considerable drop to 33%.
• December 31, 2022: There was a slight dip by year-end 2022, closing at 31.4%.
• March 31, 2023: The first quarter of 2023 saw a drastic fall in gross margin to a mere 15.2%.
• June 30, 2023: Unfortunately, the series ends with DNN logging a negative gross margin at -5.1%, indicating a severe downturn in profitability.

From December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2023, the gross margin decreased from 26.5% to -5.1%. The implied growth rate is -118.49% over this period. These data points suggest both volatility and a downward trend in their margins.

Notably, while there are significant improvements leading up to mid-2022, the final year sees a sudden and very dramatic downturn. This calls for further examination of possible causes and strategies for navigating these challenges.

The asset turnover of DNN has shown some fluctuations over the given period.

• At the start of the observed period, on December 31, 2020, DNN's asset turnover registered at 0.048.
• During the first quarter of 2021, there was a decrease to 0.036 by the end of March 2021.
• The figure maintained its position at 0.036 until the end of June 2021, then slightly increased to 0.047 by the end of September 2021.
• However, this increase was short-lived, and the asset turnover soon fell to 0.041 by the end of 2021.
• In the first half-year of 2022, there was a slight uptick in performance, with asset turnover increasing to 0.042 by the end of March and then further improvement to 0.045 by the end of June.
• Unfortunately, starting from the third quarter of 2022, the asset turnover value began to decline, hitting 0.033 by the end of September and decreasing to 0.032 by the end of December.
• As of the most recent entries in the series, there was a continued drop in the figure, measuring 0.026 and 0.02 by the end of March and June 2023, respectively.

From the initial value of 0.048 on December 31, 2020, to the most recent entry of 0.02 on June 30, 2023, DNN's asset turnover showed an overall decrease of 58.33%. Emphasis on the more recent data suggests a declining trend in DNN's asset turnover.

An Analysis of Denison Mines Corp (DNN) Stock Trends in 2023

Upon examining the provided data, several trends regarding DNN's stock prices become clear. Please find a summarized report below:

• On April 14, 2023, the share price of DNN was $1.05.
• The following week, on April 21, 2023, there was a slight decline in the share price to $1.01.
• Subsequently, in May 2023, although there were minor fluctuations, the overall trend was an increase in share price, ending at $1.09 by month-end.
• An accelerating growth trend is evident from June through September of 2023. The value of the share rose from $1.09 on June 2, 2023, to $1.69 by September 29, 2023. This represents significant growth over four months.
• However, starting from October, the share price showed signs of decelerating, with prices dropping to $1.58 by October 6, 2023, and further decreasing to $1.57 just three days later on October 9, 2023.

Overall, the data shows a general upward trend in the shares of DNN between April and September of 2023, followed by a slight decrease in October. The growth rate was especially remarkable from June to September 2023. Here is a chart of DNN's price over the past 180 days.

Evaluating Denison Mines Corp's POWR Ratings: A 2023 Sentiment, Momentum, and Growth Analysis

The POWR Ratings grade of DNN, which falls under the 39-stock Miners - Diversified category, exhibited a dynamic performance over the observed period. The latest available date in the data is October 10, 2023, at which point DNN's POWR Grade regressed to F (Strong Sell), ranked #37 in its category. Here are the key points:

• In April 2023, the POWR Grade was F (Strong Sell).
• The company continued with an F (Strong Sell) POWR Grade for May 2023.
• In June 2023, DNN maintained its F (Strong Sell) Grade.
• A noticeable change occurred in the week of June 24, 2023, where the POWR Grade rose to D (Sell).
• From July to September 2023, DNN maintained a POWR Grade of D (Sell).
• Disappointingly, DNN regressed to a POWR Grade of F (Strong Sell) as of October 10, 2023.

In the Miners - Diversified category, DNN's performance, as indicated by the POWR Grade, necessitates improvement.

In analyzing the POWR Ratings of DNN, three dimensions stand out - Sentiment, Momentum, and Growth. 

Sentiment: The Sentiment dimension continuously rates high for DNN across several months in 2023. The ratings show a consistent upward trend from a rating of 57 in April to a steady 70 in July through September. However, in October, there is a noticeable drop to 26. This might indicate a significant shift in sentiment amongst investors toward the stock during this period. 

Momentum: Momentum also presents as one of the noteworthy dimensions with a consistent progression, mirroring the sentiment's growth trajectory. The Momentum rating starts at 25 in April 2023 but shows a strong growing trend over the following months, reaching 48 in May, 49 in June, and 63 in July. Thereafter, it remains above 50 through August and September. The Momentum scores peaked in October with a significant leap to 93, suggesting a strongly bullish attitude among traders. 

Growth: The Growth dimension of DNN shows the most interesting trend among the three dimensions. Initially, it stands at a comparatively lower value of 7 in April 2023. However, this figure drastically increased to 44 in May, marking a huge growth spurt. It continues to increase to reach a high of 68 in June, maintaining high levels throughout July, August, and September (with scores of 67, 66, and 64, respectively). Toward October, it dips slightly to 62, which still denotes a growth performance.

How does Denison Mines Corp. (DNN) Stack Up Against its Peers?

Other stocks in the Miners - Diversified sector that may be worth considering are Fortescue Metals Group Limited (FSUGY), Amerigo Resources Ltd. (ARREF), and Glencore plc (GLNCY) - they have better POWR Ratings. Click here to explore more Miners – Diversified stocks.

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DNN shares were trading at $1.61 per share on Tuesday morning, up $0.04 (+2.55%). Year-to-date, DNN has gained 40.00%, versus a 15.08% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

Anushka is an analyst whose interest in understanding the impact of broader economic changes on financial markets motivated her to pursue a career in investment research.

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