December Nymex natural gas (NGZ25) on Tuesday closed up by +0.010 (+0.23%).
Dec nat-gas prices recovered from a 1.5-week low on Tuesday and settled slightly higher after updated weather forecasts turned colder for the central and eastern US toward the end of the November 23-27 period, which could boost heating demand for nat-gas. Prices initially moved lower on Tuesday after forecaster Atmospheric G2 said that longer-term temperatures for most of the US shifted warmer for the November 28-December 2 period.
Higher US nat-gas production is also a bearish factor for prices. Last Wednesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +1.0% to 107.67 bcf/day from September's estimate of 106.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Tuesday was 108.7 bcf/day (+5.8% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 87.3 bcf/day (+14.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 17.1 bcf/day (-4.6% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported last Thursday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended November 8 rose +0.12% y/y to 73,383 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending November 8 rose +2.84% y/y to 4,282,302 GWh.
Last Friday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended November 7 rose +45 bcf, above the market consensus of +34 bcf and the 5-year weekly average of +35 bcf. As of November 7, nat-gas inventories were down -0.3% y/y and were +4.5% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of November 12, gas storage in Europe was 82% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 91% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending November 14 fell by -3 to 125 rigs, falling back from a 2.25-year high of 128 rigs on November 7. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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