The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.05%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.43%.  June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.26%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.45%.

Stock indexes recovered from early losses and are mostly higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs.  The rebound in chipmakers today is lifting the broader market after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the primary supplier of chips to Apple and Nvidia, raised its 2026 revenue forecast, reflecting strong AI demand.  Gains in stocks are limited after crude oil prices jumped more than +2% when Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the US must drop “excessive demands” if a peace deal is going to be reached. 

Hopes for peace in the Middle East are supporting stocks.  The US and Iran are considering extending their ceasefire, which ends this coming Tuesday, by another two weeks to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement. 

Today’s US economic news was mixed as weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 15-month high.  However, US manufacturing production unexpectedly declined.

US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -11,000 to 207,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 213,000. 

The US Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly rose +8.6 to a 15-month high of 26.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 10.0.

US Mar manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase.

New York Fed President John Williams signaled he favors steady Fed policy, saying the Fed remains well positioned to address the threat of a protracted supply shock from the war in the Middle East, which could raise inflation and dampen growth in the US.  He added that high uncertainty should prevent the Fed from providing strong guidance on the future path of interest rates.

WTI crude oil prices (CLK26) are up more than +2% today as the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enters its fourth day.  On Monday, the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the strait that call at Iranian ports or are headed there.  The blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Iran has been able to export crude oil during the war, exporting about 1.7 million bpd in March.

Earnings season began this week, with Q1 S&P 500 earnings projected to climb +12% y/y, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  Stripping out the technology sector, Q1 earnings are projected to increase around +3%, the weakest in two years.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.

Overseas stock markets are mixed today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.07%.  China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 4-week high and closed up +0.70%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a record high and closed up +2.38%.

Interest Rates

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) today are down by -2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.6 bp to 4.289%.  T-notes gave up an early advance today and turned lower after WTI crude oil prices jumped more than +2%, boosting inflation expectations.  Also, hawkish comments from New York Fed President John Williams weighed on T-note prices when he signaled that he favors a steady Fed policy.  Today’s US economic news was mixed for T-note after US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and the Apr Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 15-month high, but Mar industrial production unexpectedly declined. 

European government bond yields are mixed today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.2 bp to 3.031%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +3.7 bp to 4.851%.

Eurozone Mar CPI was revised upward by +0.1 to 2.6% y/y from the previously reported 2.5% y/y, the highest in 20 months.

UK Feb manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.3% m/m increase.

Swaps are discounting a 14% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.

US Stock Movers

Chipmakers recovered from early losses and are moving higher today after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the primary supplier of chips to Apple and Nvidia, raised its 2026 revenue forecast, a reflection of strong AI demand.  ON Semiconductor (ON) is up more than +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100.  Also, Intel (INTC) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are up more than +3%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are up more than +2%. In addition, ARM Holdings (ARM), Analog Devices (ADI), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are up more than +1%. 

Software stocks are climbing for a second day today.  Oracle (ORCL) and Datadog (DDOG) are up more than +3%, and Atlassian (TEAM) is up more than +2%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) and Salesforce (CRM) are up more than +1%. 

Airline stocks and cruise line operators are falling today, with WTI crude oil up more than +2%, which boosts fuel costs and weighs on company profits.  Carnival (CCL) is down more than -4%, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) is down more than -3%. Also, Alaska Air Group (ALK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) are down more than -2%. 

Okta (OKTA) is up more than +5% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to outperform from market perform with a price target of $85. 

JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) is up more than +7% after reporting Q1 revenue of $3.06 billion, above the consensus of $2.96 billion. 

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is up more than +5%, adding to Wednesday’s 13% surge, after US Health Secretary Kennedy said the FDA is seeking to remove 12 peptides from Category 2 restrictions.   

PPG Industries (PPG) is up more than +5% after reporting Q1 preliminary adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $1.83, better than the consensus of $1.71. 

Voyager Technologies (VOYG) is up more than +5% after signing an order with NASA for the seventh private astronaut mission to the International Space Station.

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) is up more than +2% after BTIG initiated coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation and a price target of $300. 

QuidelOrtho Corp. (QDEL) is down more than 31% after saying it expects negative free cash flow of $65 million to $70 million in Q1, as the Middle East conflict has delayed certain EMEA orders, negatively impacting quarterly revenue. 

Charles Schwab (SCHW) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 net revenue of $6.48 billion, below the consensus of $6.51 billion.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is down more than -4% after cutting its full-year profit forecast to $5.38 to $5.58 from a previous forecast of $5.55 to $5.80, below the consensus of $5.61. 

Fabrinet (FN) is down more than -3% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. 

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) is down more than -2% after being double-downgraded by Citigroup to sell from buy with a price target of $90.

Corning (GLW) is down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight. 

Earnings Reports(4/16/2026)

Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa Corp (AA), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW), Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG), FNB Corp/PA (FNB), KeyCorp (KEY), Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI), ManpowerGroup Inc (MAN), Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc (MRSH), Netflix Inc (NFLX), PepsiCo Inc (PEP), Prologis Inc (PLD), Travelers Cos Inc/The (TRV), US Bancorp (USB).