July arabica coffee (KCN26) on Thursday closed down -5.05 (-1.80%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) closed down -73 (-2.05%).

Coffee prices retreated on Thursday amid a stronger dollar.  The dollar index ($DXY) climbed to a 2-week high on Thursday, undercutting most commodity prices, including coffee.

On Wednesday, robusta coffee rallied to a 7-week high, and arabica climbed to a 1-week high amid tightness in ICE coffee inventories.   ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low of 3,642 lots on Wednesday.  Also, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags on Tuesday.

Smaller exports from Brazil are supportive of coffee prices.  On Tuesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil's April green coffee exports fell -1.3% y/y to 2.76 million bags.  

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global coffee supplies and is bullish for prices.  The closure of the Strait has tightened coffee supplies by increasing global shipping rates, insurance, fertilizer, and fuel costs, and raising costs for coffee importers and roasters.  

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On Saturday, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Apr) rose by +15.8% y/y to 810,000 MT.  Vietnam's 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT.  Also, Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

Expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop are negative for prices.  Last Thursday, the Coffee Trading Academy projected Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest will increase by 12% y/y to 71.4 million bags.  On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags (+15.5% y/y).  On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags.  Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.