Proprietary research finds 24% of all billion dollar-plus deals leaked in 2023

Deals valued at more than $10 billion leaked at a higher rate of 43%

H/Advisors Abernathy, a leading strategic communications advisor, today unveiled its fourth annual ‘Leaks Report,’ offering a proprietary analysis into the M&A reporting trends that helped shape the 2023 dealmaking environment in United States.

The full report is available for download here: https://bit.ly/M-A_leaks2024

H/Advisors Abernathy’s proprietary research – ‘When Deals Spring a Leak Volume IV’ –showcases how the M&A media reporting landscape changed in a year characterized by a significant downturn in transaction volume. The firm’s Research & Insights team analyzed announced U.S. transactions of $1 billion or more in enterprise value throughout 2023 to better understand valuation and industry-specific trends, the accuracy of media leaks, and the impact of phenomenon such as the rise in divestures and slowdown in private equity-backed dealmaking.

“Amid last year’s challenging dealmaking environment, it is clear based on our research that media leaks continue to have a meaningful impact on how potential transactions are ultimately announced and perceived,” said Tom Johnson, CEO of H/Advisors Abernathy. “As nearly one in four billion dollar-plus deals leaked in 2023, there is a clear need for companies of all sizes to implement thoughtful planning around what to do, and what not to do, should a leak occur. While leaks can be overcome, protecting both the reputation of the parties involved and the integrity of ongoing negotiations is critical, which is why we stress the need to be prepared.”

H/Advisors Abernathy’s data shows that 24% of the 400+ announced transactions leaked in 2023. Deals valued at more than $10 billion leaked at a higher rate of 43%, slightly down from 47% in the previous year. “Amid an expected rebound in the M&A market this year, M&A leaks will continue to pose challenges to dealmakers and companies exploring transactions. Our annual M&A leaks research is one example of how data-driven insights help us partner with our clients in developing stakeholder engagement strategies through high-profile transactions and complex situations,” added Dan Scorpio, Managing Director and head of the M&A practice at H/Advisors Abernathy.

Further, divestitures leaked at a higher rate than whole-company transactions. In 2023, 30% of divestitures leaked, compared to 22% of transactions involving the sale of an entire company.

Other key findings in the ‘When Deals Spring a Leak Volume IV’ Report include:

• Private equity deals increased their share of the M&A market, with 44% of transactions announced in 2023 involving a private equity buyer or seller. Private equity deal leaks followed the same trends we observed across M&A overall, with 27% of PE deals having leaked, compared to 24% of transactions overall.
• Media leaks were increasingly accurate on transaction parties, but valuation accuracy declined: In 2022, 60% of leaks accurately reported the transaction value within a 10% margin, while in 2023, 58% achieved this level of accuracy. On the flipside, 76% of leak articles accurately named both parties involved in the transaction, up from 70% in 2022.
• Social media was the driving force behind leak attention. In 2023, social media channels like X and Reddit drove the most chatter, as social media accounted for more than 74% of all reach (by impressions), compared to 23% among traditional online media.
• Entertainment, leisure and media was the “leakiest” sector, with media reporting on 47% of those announced transactions in 2023. While technology and software services was the busiest sector overall, with 73 deals in 2023 valued at over $1 billion, 26% of these transactions leaked, in line with the larger average. Energy/utility and real estate transactions leaked less than the overall average, both below 15%.

In addition to the data and analysis, H/Advisors Abernathy’s annual M&A leaks report also includes recommendations for how executives and dealmakers should prepare to announce a transaction and manage the potential for a media leak, including scenario planning for potential rumor or leak scenarios, as well as how to regain control of the narrative following a leak.

The full report is available for download using this link: https://bit.ly/M-A_leaks2024

About H/Advisors Abernathy

A trusted communications advisor, H/Advisors Abernathy specializes in advising CEOs, board directors and senior executives on effective stakeholder communications and engagement. For 40 years, we have been entrusted by clients across sectors to help build, protect and enhance their reputations, boost value and seize new opportunities. H/Advisors Abernathy operates from offices in New York, Los Angeles, Houston, San Francisco, Chicago and Washington, D.C. and is a founding member of the H/Advisors global network of specialized public relations and strategic communications firms.

For more information, please visit https://abernathy.h-advisors.global

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