Tractor Supply’s third quarter was marked by a 7.2% rise in sales and continued healthy transaction growth, which management attributed to resilient customer engagement, successful execution of seasonal strategies, and share gains in consumable and year-round categories. CEO Hal Lawton credited the company’s ability to meet shifting consumer demand, particularly through its extended summer season and gains in categories like tractors, lawn and garden equipment, and wildlife supplies. Lawton noted, “Our customers remain loyal and connected to their lifestyle, continuing to shop with us across categories and channels.”
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Tractor Supply (TSCO) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $3.72 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.71 billion (7.2% year-on-year growth, in line)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.49 vs analyst estimates of $0.48 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $466.8 million vs analyst estimates of $471.6 million (12.6% margin, 1% miss)
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for the full year is $2.09 at the midpoint, roughly in line with what analysts were expecting
- Operating Margin: 9.2%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Locations: 2,570 at quarter end, up from 2,475 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales rose 3.9% year on year (-0.2% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $28.74 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Tractor Supply’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Steven Forbes (Guggenheim): asked about the direct sales program’s ramp and its margin impact. CEO Hal Lawton and Chief Stores Officer John Ordus explained the initiative is scaling as planned, now covers over 300 stores, and is expected to become self-funding next year.
- Michael Lasser (UBS): questioned whether recent consumer trends reflected broader economic shifts or weather disruptions. Lawton replied that customer engagement remains strong, with Q4 outlook heavily dependent on winter weather and ongoing momentum from direct sales.
- Kate McShane (Goldman Sachs): inquired about tariff impact on pricing strategy. Chief Merchandising Officer Seth Estep stated price adjustments have been selective, elasticity limited, and value perception remains a top priority as tariffs flow through the fourth quarter.
- Scott Ciccarelli (Truist): asked about drivers of operating margin expansion in 2026. CFO Kurt Barton pointed to normalization of SG&A expenses and a more stable investment environment, enabling margin leverage at lower comp sales growth levels.
- David Bellinger (Mizuho): sought clarity on the hunting supplies and ammunition expansion. Estep described ammo as a natural extension of the wildlife category, now in about half of all stores, and positioned as a long-term growth opportunity.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Moving forward, the StockStory team will closely watch (1) the pace and productivity of new store openings, especially in Western markets, (2) continued adoption and scale of the direct sales and final mile initiatives, and (3) traction in expanded categories like wildlife and pet pharmacy. Further progress in digital fulfillment and tariff management will also be important indicators of strategic execution.
Tractor Supply currently trades at $54.41, in line with $54.87 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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