The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.50%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.40%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.55%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.42%.

Stock indexes are extending Wednesday's losses today, with the S&P 500 falling to a 2-week low and the Nasdaq 100 sliding to a 2.5-month low.  The selloff in technology stocks persists, with Qualcomm down more than -9% to lead chip stocks lower after it forecasted weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue.  Also, Alphabet is down more than -3% after it forecast full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion, well above the consensus of $119.5 billion, which may impact its free cash flow, according to several analysts. 

Stocks are also pressured today by signs of weakness in the US labor market after Challenger's January job cuts rose +117.8% y/y to 108,435, the largest amount of job cuts for a January since 2009.  Also, weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +22,000 to an 8-week high of 231,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 212,000.

Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she supported last week's Fed decision to hold interest rates steady because she now sees "risks as tilted toward higher inflation." She added that, "After nearly five years of above-target inflation, it is essential that we maintain our credibility by returning to a disinflationary path and achieving our target in the relatively near future."

Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is down more than -3% today to a 1.25-year low as negative momentum deepened across cryptocurrencies.  Bitcoin is down about 45% from its October record high, and inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have reversed, with about $2 billion coming out of Bitcoin ETFs over the past month and more than $5 billion pulled out over the past three months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

The markets this week will focus on earnings and economic news. Later today, the Dec JOLTS job openings are expected to increase by +104,000 to 7.250 million.  On Friday, the University of Michigan's Jan consumer sentiment index is expected to fall by -1.4 points to 55.0.   

Q4 earnings season is in full swing, with 150 of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 81% of the 237 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 18% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets today are lower.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down by -1.05%.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.64%.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.88%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +10 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.0 bp to 4.234%.   T-notes are moving higher today as the stock slump boosts safe-haven demand for government debt.  T-notes added to their gains today on signs of weakness in the US labor market after Challenger job cuts soared and weekly initial unemployment claims rose more than expected to an 8-week high.  In addition, falling inflation expectations are supportive for T-notes as the 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1-week low of 2.321% today. 

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -0.1 bp to 2.858%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 2.5-month high of 4.597% and is down -2.6 bp to 4.520%.

Eurozone Dec retail sales fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m and the biggest decline in 2.25 years.

German Dec factory orders unexpectedly rose +7.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of -2.2% m/m decline and the largest increase in two years.

As expected, the ECB kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% and said, "The economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment.  At the same time, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions."

As expected, the BOE held its policy rate steady at 3.75% in a 5-4 vote.  BOE Governor Bailey said upside risks to inflation have diminished, and there should be scope for further policy easing if the economy and the inflation outlook evolve as expected.

Swaps are discounting a 0% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

Qualcomm (QCOM) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and chip stocks after forecasting Q2 revenue of $10.2 billion to $11.0 billion, weaker than the consensus of $11.18  billion. Also, Lam Research (LRCX), Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Analog Devices (ADI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -1%. 

The Magnificent Seven technology stocks are sliding today to weigh on the overall market.  Alphabet (GOOGL) is down more than -3% after forecasting full-year 2026 capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion, well above the consensus of $119.5 billion, which may impact its free cash flow, according to several analysts.  Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) is down more than -3%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down more than -2%.  In addition, Tesla (TSLA) is down more than -1%, Apple (AAPL) is down -0.84%, and Meta Platforms (META) is down -0.25%.  Bucking the trend, Nvidia (NVDA) is up +0.43%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are retreating today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down by more than -3% at a 1.25-year low.  Strategy (MSTR) is down by more than -5%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) and MARA Holdings (MARA) are down more than -3%.  Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) is down by more than -2%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is down -0.07%. 

Fluence Energy (FLNC) is down more than -18% after reporting Q1 adjusted Ebitda loss of -$52.1 million, wider than the consensus of -$27.1 million. 

Estee Lauder (EL) is down more than -19% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $2.05 to $2.25, the midpoint below the consensus of $2.17. 

Cummins Inc (CMI) is down more than -9% after reporting Q4 EPS of $4.27, well below the consensus of $5.07.

IQVIA Holdings (IQV) is down more than -7% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $12.55 to $12.85, below the consensus of $12.96.

Ares Management (ARES) is down more than -6% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.45, weaker than the consensus of $1.68.

Crown Castle (CCI) is down more than -5% after forecasting full-year adjusted Ebitda of $2.67 billion to $2.72 billion, weaker than the consensus of $2.85 billion. 

McKesson Corp (MCK) is up more than +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $9.34, better than the consensus of $9.27, and boosting its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $38.80 to $39.20 from a prior estimate of $38.35 to $38.85.

Align Technology (ALGN) is up more than +11% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.29, stronger than the consensus of $2.97. 

Tapestry (TPR) is up more than +9% after reporting Q2 net sales of $2.50 billion, better than the consensus of $2.32 billion. 

Hershey (HSY) is up more than +6% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1,71, above the consensus of $1.40, and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $8.20 to $8.52, well above the consensus of $7.07.   

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 revenue of $12.50 billion, better than the consensus of $12.27 billion, and forecasting full-year revenue of $46 billion to $47.5 billion, well above the consensus of $44.16 billion. 

Elf Beauty (ELF) is up more than +2% after reporting Q3 net sales of $489.5 million, stronger than the consensus of $458.9 million, and raising its full-year net sales forecast to $1.60 billion-$1.61 billion from a previous estimate of $1,55 billion-$1.57 billion, above the consensus of $1.57 billion.

Earnings Reports(2/5/2026)

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN), Ares Management Corp (ARES), Atlassian Corp (TEAM), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY), Camden Property Trust (CPT), Cardinal Health Inc (CAH), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), Cigna Group/The (CI), CMS Energy Corp (CMS), ConocoPhillips (COP), Cummins Inc (CMI), Dayforce Inc (DAY), Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR), Equity Residential (EQR), Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The (EL), Fortinet Inc (FTNT), Gen Digital Inc (GEN), Hershey Co/The (HSY), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE), IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV), KKR & Co Inc (KKR), Linde PLC (LIN), Mettler-Toledo International Inc (MTD), Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP), Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH), Monolithic Power Systems Inc (MPWR), News Corp (NWSA), Ralph Lauren Corp (RL), Regency Centers Corp (REG), Rockwell Automation Inc (ROK), Snap-on Inc (SNA), Strategy Inc (MSTR), Tapestry Inc (TPR), Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI), Ventas Inc (VTR), VeriSign Inc (VRSN), WEC Energy Group Inc (WEC), Xcel Energy Inc (XEL).

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