HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q25

In specific terms, the Current Performance Index (a measure of actual performance for the quarter in question) rose by 1.8 points to 52.1. Equally reassuringly, the Expectation Index (a measure of confidence in likely performance in the coming quarter) was up by 1.0 points to 51.0. Both readings were above the watermark level of 50, which can be taken as confirming general optimism with regard to future export prospects.

Given the likely impact of the series of higher tariffs imposed by the US in the last two months, the HKTDC has slightly adjusted its 2025 Hong Kong export growth forecast from 4% to 3%. There remains a downside risk to the forecast given the uncertainty over any future escalation in global trade tension.

Commenting on the revised forecast and the 1Q25 findings, Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, said: “It’s a testament to the resilience of Hong Kong’s export sector that growth is still indicated. While export business may be growing at a moderately slower rate than had been initially anticipated, there are still many reasons to be optimistic.”

“This is partly down to the agility and flexibility many Hong Kong exporters have demonstrated in terms of strategies for future-proofing their business activities.”

From the findings of the 1Q25 survey, it is clear a range of strategies, including diversifying sourcing, expanding into new markets and the relocation of production lines, have been very much front-of-mind for many of Hong Kong’s export-oriented businesses. These moves, it is believed, will help enterprises mitigate the adverse effects of any current or future protectionist measures.

Overall, despite a more challenging global trade backdrop, it was encouraging to note the majority of survey respondents (75.4%) remained confident their 2025 net profit margins would either rise or remain stable. This was notably higher than the 72.1% of respondents expressing the same sentiment in 4Q24, while also being the highest such figure for 12 months.

In terms of market prospects, uncertainties over its trading stance have inevitably clouded the general views of the US. Tellingly, the Current Performance figure for the country was 47.8, with its 3.1 point quarter-on-quarter decline taking it below the watermark level of 50 for the first time in 12 months.

Exporter sentiment, however, remained largely positive when looking beyond the US market, particularly with reference to Mainland China, the EU and the ASEAN bloc. In all, the Current Performance Index reading for Mainland China was up 6.7 points to 59.0 (compared to 4Q24) while the comparable finding for the EU was up 3.8 points to 50.1. The reading for the ASEAN bloc (56.4), meanwhile, remained solidly in expansionary territory.

Nicholas Fu, Senior Economist, said “A similar pattern was in evidence in the case of the Expectation Index. This saw Mainland China up 3.0 points to 55.7, followed by the ASEAN bloc (53.0) and the EU (52.7). The US was again down, falling by 4.3 points to hit a one-year low of 46.7.”

In terms of more general findings, Jewellery (at 53.1 points) was the most upbeat industry sector with regard to 1Q25 Current Performance, followed by Electronics (52.3) and Timepieces (51.2). In terms of Expectation, Jewellery (54.4), Equipment/Materials (52.6) and Timepiece (51.1) exporters were most optimistic as to their likely future performance.

Appendix

The HKTDC Export Confidence Index has been designed to provide a comprehensive overview of Hong Kong exporter sentiment. It comprises two primary / overall indices, one of which gauges the Current Performance with regard to the surveyed quarter, while the other considers Expectation for the upcoming quarter. The findings of both indices are based on a weighted average of five sub-indices – Sales and New Orders, Trade Value, Cost, Procurement, and Inventory.

Full details of the methodology / definitions relating to the HKTDC Export Confidence Index can be found in the Appendix section of the full quarterly report.

References
HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q25: Export Confidence Improves Despite Growing Trade Tensions
HKTDC Research website

Photo download: bit.ly/3QMQHmU

Media enquiries

Please contact the HKTDC’s Communication and Public Affairs Department:

About HKTDC

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via research reports and digital news channels. For more information, please visit: www.hktdc.com/aboutus.