Overall 2025 Export Growth Forecast for 2025 upwardly adjusted

This rise in confidence was underlined by the readings of two of the Index’s key components – the Current Performance Index and the Expectation Index. For its part, the Current Performance Index, a measure of how exporters viewed their business performance in the surveyed quarter, stood at 53.3 (up from 49.6). The Expectation Index, a measure of how exporters see their likely prospects in the coming quarter, stood at 54.3 (up from 49.0).

This is the highest reading for the two metrics since the introduction of the upgraded HKTDC Export Confidence Index in January 2024. The outcomes here were underpinned by the rally in Sales and New Orders, a development driven by the widely adopted trade front-loading strategy, and the rise in Trade Value (higher unit prices), which stemmed from the impact of the higher US tariffs.

Hong Kong’s exports recorded year-on-year growth of 12.7% in the first seven months of 2025, with the tactical front-loading of trade being the major contributory factor. As a result, the HKTDC has upwardly revised its overall Hong Kong Export Growth Forecast for 2025 from 3% to 7-9%.

Tariffs and front-loaded trade set to impact 2026 export figures

The Council, however, has been keen to put this revision into perspective and has cautioned against assuming this latest prediction will remain unaffected by the ongoing market uncertainties.

Addressing the uncertainties that lie ahead, Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, said: “While it’s tempting to celebrate this forecast, it’s essential that we bear in mind that the better-than-expected export performance in the first seven months of the year was driven largely by the front-loading trade strategy, the benefits of which will recede over the coming months.

“As of August, the US imposed high tariffs on many of its major trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, the European Union and several key ASEAN bloc members. Beyond that, China-US trade talks are ongoing, with the deadline for any agreement now extended until November this year.

“With all of this in mind, we should be duly cautious and refrain from being overly optimistic. The possibility of future tariff hikes and further supply chain risks within the already increasingly fragmented global trading arena remains very real and could well translate into a sharp deceleration in trade in 2026.”

For the present, though, in terms of markets, Mainland China (62.4, up 9.5) and the ASEAN bloc (56.9, up 3.5) continue to be seen as hugely promising with regard to their Current Performance, while export performance was reported as being elevated across the EU and in Japan. There are also signs that this is likely to continue in the near term, with the Market Expectation Index showing that exporters remain optimistic as to their expansion prospects within many of their target markets, including Mainland China (60.5, up 7.9), the ASEAN bloc (60.5, up 0.6), the EU (55.0, up 4.3 points) and Japan (54.7, up 4.1 points).

Overall, it is only in the case of the US that confidence continued to falter, with readings for both its current and expected performance staying firmly below 40, an indication that considerable contraction is anticipated.

Rising / stable profit margins widely expected

On the industry sector front, the Current Performance readings for Timepieces (54.9, up 2.8), Electronics (54.5, up 5.6), Clothing (51.2, up 2.3), and Jewellery (51.3, down 0.3 points) placed them all in expansionary territory. Toys (49.4, up 6.3 points) and Equipment/ Materials (45.8, down 4.6), however, remained in contractionary space.

A similar message could be derived from the Expectation Index, with Electronics (56.0, up 7.6), Timepieces (53.8, up 2.3), Clothing (51.9, up 4.6) and Jewellery (51.5, up 1.5) all firmly in the expansionary zone, and only the Toys (49.4, up 5.8) and Equipment / Materials (47.3, down 3.8) sectors seen as still liable to contract.

Reiterating the overall message of the most recent figures, Nicholas Fu, the HKTDC Research Senior Economist who oversaw the compilation of the Index, said: “From the 3Q25 readings, it is encouraging that the majority (64%) of survey respondents expected rising/stable profit margins despite the challenging trading environment.”

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References

- HKTDC Research website: https://research.hktdc.com/en/
- HKTDC Export Confidence Index 3Q25: Exporter optimism up as global trade tension declines [https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjEwMDQzNTA1Nw]

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About HKTDC

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With over 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via research reports and digital news channels. For more information, please visit: www.hktdc.com/aboutus.