Thomasville, North Carolina-based Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is one of the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers and provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services. With a market cap of $29.2 billion, Old Dominion’s offerings also include various value-added services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting.
The company has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. ODFL stock prices have plunged 21.3% on a YTD basis and 38.7% over the past 52 weeks, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 16.5% gains in 2025 and 14.5% returns over the past year.
Narrowing the focus, ODFL has also underperformed the industry-focused iShares Transportation Average ETF’s (IYT) 8% uptick in 2025 and marginal 29 bps dip over the past 52 weeks.
Old Dominion Freight Line’s stock prices observed a marginal uptick in the trading session following the release of its Q3 results on Oct. 29. The company has continued to face pressure on its topline due to a decline in volumes. Due to a 7.9% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 1.2% decrease in LTL weight per shipment, the company’s overall LTL tons per day declined 9% compared to the year-ago quarter. This was partially offset by pricing gains. Overall, the company’s topline came in at $1.4 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year, but 70 bps above the Street’s expectations.
Meanwhile, its adjusted EPS dropped 10.5% year-over-year to $1.28, but exceeded the consensus estimates by 4.9%.
For the full fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect ODFL to deliver an adjusted EPS of $4.81, down 12.2% year-over-year. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. While it surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates thrice over the past four quarters, it missed the projections on one other occasion.
Among the 23 analysts covering the ODFL stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on seven “Strong Buys,” one “Moderate Buy,” 12 “Holds,” and three “Strong Sells.”
This configuration has remained stable in recent months.
On Oct. 30, Evercore ISI Group analyst Jonathan Chappell reiterated an “In-Line” rating on ODFL, but lowered the price target from $143 to $139.
As of writing, ODFL’s mean price target of $157.28 represents a 13.3% premium to current price levels. Meanwhile, the street-high target of $181 suggests a notable 30.4% upside potential.
On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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