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Corn Falling as USDA Yield Cut Comes Well Shy of Estimates

November 14, 2025 at 13:08 PM EST

ⓘ This article is third-party content and does not represent the views of this site. We make no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness.

Corn futures are falling 9 to 11 cents at midday, as USDA’s yield cut was far shy of estimates. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up another 6 ½ cents at $4.02 ½.

After a month off, USDA released an updated Crop Production report this morning, showing corn yield at 186 bpa. That was just a 0.7 bpa decrease from the September report and dropped output by 62 mbu to 16.752 bbu. Traders were looking for a 184 bpa yield number.

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As per the WASDE, there was a 207 mbu increase to the 2024/25 carryout number at 1.532 bbu, expected from the September Grain Stocks report, which took total 2025/26 supply 144 mbu higher to 18.309 bbu. Other demand changes came from exports (+100 mbu), which limited the increased the 2025/26 carryout estimate to 44 mbu to 2.154 bbu.

World corn ending stocks are estimated at 281.34 MMT, which was a 0.06 MMT reduction from the September report. That came as China was trimmed by 3.16 MMT, offsetting the US number.

The USDA also released the backlog of flash sale announcements from October 1 to November 12, with 4.915 MMT reported as large sales (exceeding 100,000 MT). Of that, 4.367 MMT was for the current marketing year and 548,640 MT for 2026/27.

Dec 25 Corn is at $4.30 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $3.92 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Mar 26 Corn is at $4.45, down 10 1/2 cents,

May 26 Corn is at $4.53 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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