The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.06%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.29%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are up +0.09%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are up +0.24%.

US stock indexes are moving higher today on some strength in technology stocks, led by a +5% jump in Alphabet after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company.  Also, strength in chip makers and AI infrastructure stocks today is a supportive factor for the broader market.

Caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings results after Wednesday’s close is limiting gains in the overall market.  Also, earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot this week will provide insight into the health of consumer spending.  The markets will also look to the release of long-delayed economic news this week. 

Today’s economic news was supportive for stocks as the Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey unexpectedly rose +8.0 to a 1-year high of 18.7, stronger than expectations of a decline to 5.8.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that it will release the September jobs report this Thursday and the September real earnings report this Friday.  Last Thursday, Economic Council Director Hassett said the October jobs report will be released without the unemployment rate.  The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have not yet released updated dates for retail sales and inflation-adjusted consumer spending. 

The markets are discounting a 41% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 460 of the 500 S&P companies have released results.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021.  Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are lower today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.94%.  China’s Shanghai Composite fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -0.46%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 dropped to a 1-week low and closed down -0.10%.

Interest Rates

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) today are up +2 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.4 bp to 4.135%.  T-notes are slightly higher today on speculation that long-delayed US economic news scheduled for release this week will show weakness in the economy and easing inflation pressures, which could allow the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. T-notes fell back from their best level after the Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey unexpectedly rose to a 1-year high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.

European government bond yields are moving lower today.  The 10-year German bund yield is down -1.0 bp to 2.710%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell from a 1-month high of 4.589% and is down -3.1 bp to 4.543%.

The European Commission raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to +1.3% from a May forecast of +0.9% and kept its 2025 Eurozone inflation forecast unchanged from May at +2.1%.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said financial stability risks “remain elevated in view of uncertainty over geoeconomic trends and the ultimate impact of tariffs in a volatile international environment.”

Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Micron Technology (MU) is up more than +4% to lead chip makers and AI-infrastructure stocks higher after Rosenblatt Securities raised its price target on the stock to $300 from $250.

Also, Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +3% and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +2%.  In addition, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Applied Materials (AMAT), Broadcom (AVGO), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +1%. 

Alphabet (GOOGL) is up more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company. 

Zymeworks (ZYME) is up +33% and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) is up more than +18% after their collaboration of an experimental combination therapy for cancer of the stomach and esophagus showed topline results from a late-stage trial.  

Rubrik (RBRK) is up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral with a price target of $97. 

Gap (GAP) is up more than +1% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weigh with a price target of $30. 

Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) is up more than +1% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $166.

Aramark (ARMK) is down more than -6% after reporting Q4 revenue of $5.05 billion, weaker than the consensus of $5.17 billion.

Dell Technologies (DELL) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after being double-downgraded by Morgan Stanley to underweight from overweight with a price target of $110. 

HP Enterprise (HPE) is down more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.

Sealed Air Corp (SEE) is down more than -3% after Stifel downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

HP Inc (HPQ) is down more than -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a price target of $24. 

Earnings Reports(11/17/2025)

Aramark (ARMK), Helmerich & Payne Inc (HP), I3 Verticals Inc (IIIV), J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), LifeMD Inc (LFMD), XP Inc (XP).

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