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Is McDonald's Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Valued at $217.1 billion by market cap, Chicago, Illinois-based McDonald's Corporation (MCD) owns, operates, and franchises over 38,000 restaurants in more than 100 countries across the globe. McDonald’s offerings include burgers, sandwiches, fries, shakes, desserts, soft serve cones, cookies, and more.

Companies worth $200 billion or more are generally described as "mega-cap stocks." McDonald’s fits right into that category, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, reflecting its substantial size and influence in the restaurant industry. McDonald’s operates as the largest QSR chain in the world.

 

McDonald’s touched its all-time high of $326.32 on Mar. 10 and is currently trading 4.9% below that peak. Meanwhile, MCD stock has observed a marginal 95 bps dip over the past three months, notably underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DOWI4% gains during the same time frame.

www.barchart.com

McDonald's has underperformed the Dow over the longer term as well. MCD stock has gained 7.1% on a YTD basis and 4.8% over the past 52 weeks, compared to Dow’s 10.7% gains in 2025 and 5.3% returns over the past year.

MCD stock has dived below 50-day and 200-day moving averages in mid-September and early October, respectively, underscoring its recent downturn.

www.barchart.com

McDonald's stock prices gained 2.2% in the trading session following the release of its mixed Q3 results on Nov. 5. Despite the challenging macro environment, the company’s affordable menu combined with compelling marketing has continued to push its sales. MCD’s systemwide sales increased by 6% on a constant currency basis and 8% after including the impact of forex translation. This was supported by a solid 3.6% growth in comparable sales. Overall, its topline grew 3% year-over-year to $7.1 billion, beating the Street’s expectations by 15 bps. However, the company’s adjusted EPS declined by 31 bps to $3.22 and missed the consensus estimates by 3.9%.

On a more positive note, McDonald's has significantly outperformed its peer Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.’s (CMG44.6% plunge on a YTD basis and a 46.1% decline over the past year.

Among the 35 analysts covering the MCD stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” Its mean price target of $337.47 represents an 8.7% upside potential from current price levels.


On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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