January Nymex natural gas (NGF26) on Wednesday fell by -0.166 (-3.77%), giving back part of Tuesday's rally of +11.17% that was sparked by cold-weather forecasts.
Jan nat-gas prices on Wednesday fell as forecasts shifted a bit warmer for the East Coast on Jan 3-7, although forecasts shifted colder for the interior West and Plains regions, according to Atmospheric G2.
The EIA announced that this week's inventory report has been rescheduled from December 24 to December 29 at Noon (ET) due to the Christmas holiday.
Higher US nat-gas production is bearish for prices. The EIA on December 9 raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production to 107.74 bcf/day from its November estimate of 107.70 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Wednesday was 112.9 bcf/day (+8.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Wednesday was 85.2 bcf/day (-8.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 18.3 bcf/day (-4.2% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported on December 10 that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended December 6 rose +2.3% y/y to 85,330 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending December 6 rose +2.84% y/y to 4,291,665 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended December 12 fell by -167 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -176 bcf but larger than the 5-year weekly average of -96 bcf. As of December 12, nat-gas inventories were down -1.2% y/y and were +0.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of December 17, gas storage in Europe was 68% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 78% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Tuesday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending December 26 remained unchanged at 127, just below the 2.25-year high of 130 set on November 28. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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