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Is Tractor Supply Stock Underperforming the Dow?

With a market cap of $26 billion, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is a U.S.-based rural lifestyle retailer that sells products for farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners. The company offers a wide range of merchandise, including livestock and equine feed, pet supplies, lawn and garden equipment, tools, hardware, and clothing. 

Companies valued more than $10 billion are generally considered “large-cap” stocks, and Tractor Supply fits this criterion perfectly. It operates retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home brands, along with e-commerce websites. It primarily serves recreational farmers, ranchers, and rural lifestyle customers across the United States.

 

Shares of the Brentwood, Tennessee-based company have fallen 22.9% from its 52-week high of $63.99. Tractor Supply’s shares have decreased 4.7% over the past three months, a more pronounced decline than the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average's ($DOWI) 2.6% dip over the same time frame. 

www.barchart.com

In the longer term, shares of the retailer have declined 5.4% over the past 52 weeks, lagging behind DOWI’s 14.4% return over the same time frame. However, TSCO stock is down 1% on a YTD basis, slightly outpacing Dow Jones’ 1.3% decline.

Yet, the stock has been trading below its 50-day moving average since late September 2025.

www.barchart.com

Shares of Tractor Supply tumbled 7.6% on Jan. 29 after the company reported Q4 2025 results that missed expectations, with net income declining 3.8% to $227.4 million and diluted EPS slipping to $0.43 from $0.44 a year earlier. Although Q4 net sales rose 3.3% to $3.90 billion, comparable store sales increased only 0.3%, reflecting weaker discretionary spending and the absence of emergency-response demand. Investor sentiment was also pressured by higher costs and margin pressure, as SG&A expenses increased 6% to $1.07 billion and operating income fell 6.5% to $297.7 million.

In comparison, rival Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) has outpaced TSCO stock. WSM stock has gained 1% on a YTD basis and 3.2% over the past 52 weeks.

Despite the stock’s underperformance, analysts remain moderately optimistic on TSCO. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 29 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $58.19 is a premium of 18% to current levels.


On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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