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Warmer US Temps Boost Air-Conditioning Usage and Nat-Gas Prices

By: Barchart.com

May 13, 2026 at 15:18 PM EDT

ⓘ This article is third-party content and does not represent the views of this site. We make no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness.

June Nymex natural gas (NGM26) on Wednesday closed up +0.021 (+0.74%).

Nat-gas prices settled higher on Wednesday on forecasts of above-normal US weather, which could spark nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning use. The Commodity Weather Group said Wednesday that forecasts shifted warmer, with above-average temperatures expected across the Midwest and Southwest through May 17.

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Projections for higher US nat-gas production are negative for prices. On Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 110.61 bcf/day from an April estimate of 109.60 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high in late February.

On April 17, nat-gas prices tumbled to a 1.5-year nearest-futures low amid robust US gas storage. EIA nat-gas inventories as of April 24 were +7.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling abundant US nat-gas supplies.

The outlook for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for the foreseeable future is supportive for nat-gas as the closure will curb Middle Eastern nat-gas supplies, potentially boosting US nat-gas exports to make up for the shortfall.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Wednesday was 109.8 bcf/day (+3.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Wednesday was 67.8 bcf/day (+6.0% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 17.3 bcf/day (-1.9% w/w), according to BNEF.

Nat-gas prices have some medium-term support on the outlook for tighter global LNG supplies. On March 19, Qatar reported "extensive damage" at the world's largest natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. Qatar said the attacks by Iran damaged 17% of Ras Laffan's LNG export capacity, a damage that will take three to five years to repair. The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and a reduction in its capacity could boost US nat-gas exports. Also, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran has sharply curtailed nat-gas supplies to Europe and Asia.

As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended May 9 rose +2.2% y/y to 74,355 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending May 9 rose +1.8% y/y to 4,329,426 GWh.

The consensus is that Thursday's EIA nat-gas inventories rose by +91 bcf for the week ended May 8, above the five-year average for this time of year of +84 bcf.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by +63 bcf, below expectations of +72 bcf, and below the 5-year weekly average of +77 bcf. As of May 1, nat-gas inventories were up +2.8% y/y, and +6.7% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. As of May 9, gas storage in Europe was 35% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 47% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending May 8 fell by -1 to 129 rigs, modestly below the 2.5-year high of 134 rigs set on February 27. In the past 19 months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.75-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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