According to trade credit insurer Allianz Trade, global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2024, likely growing by +3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services. The end of the year will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the next US administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters.
This frontloading will likely remain a tailwind for global trade in the first half of 2025, before the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade now expects global trade in volume to grow by +2.8% in 2025 (-0.2pp vs previous forecast) and +2.3% in 2026 (-0.5pp). In terms of export prices in USD terms, the deflationary environment observed since 2023 will likely continue into 2025 as exporters partly take on the impact of higher tariffs to maintain their market shares. Consequently, in USD value terms, Allianz Trade’s downside revisions are even larger, with growth reaching +2.3% in 2025 (-1.7pp) and +4.1% in 2026 (-0.8pp).
Frontloading and seasonality boosting marine and air cargo performances
Marine cargo and trade data confirm that exporters are frontloading shipments ahead of the upcoming tariff hikes. Data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust +6.7% y/y in November, in part supported by orders from the US. In fact, US imports from China have been accelerating since this summer, rising by +10.4% y/y on average between July and September. In particular, imports of some consumer goods that were previously targeted by a tariff hike to 7.5% (vs the likely 25% under the new Trump administration) have outperformed, growing by nearly +20% y/y on average between July and September.
The ongoing holiday season is traditionally the time when international cargo demand increases the most. Indeed, demand for air cargo was up +9.8% y/y in November, the 15th consecutive month of increases. Besides the ongoing trade uncertainties and seasonality, cargo airlines have also been benefiting from rising e-commerce, evidenced in the increase in China’s air cargo volume, which reached historic highs in early December, given the significant surge in its international segment.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241216623383/en/
Contacts
Casey Pelfrey
casey.pelfrey@allianz-trade.com
