Best’s Commentary: Insurers Expected to Incur Large Losses From Expanding California Wildfires

AM Best expects insured losses from the California wildfires to be significant, with more-concentrated individual insurers likely to be more negatively impacted. However, the longer-term impact on the state’s market also may be substantial as insurers will further re-examine their appetites for wildfire risk as it has become highly unpredictable with respect to location, intensity and seasonality.

In its Best’s Commentary, “Expanding California Wildfires Expected to Incur Large Insured Losses,” AM Best notes that ultimate insured losses will depend largely on the coverage secured by homeowners, many with high-value real estate, as well as the level of protection obtained by business owners. Demand surge and ongoing inflationary pressures also may drive up insurance claims-related costs.

“California residents have dealt with an increasing variety of severe weather events in recent years such as wildfires, along with a prolonged drought and multiple flooding events caused by atmospheric rivers,” said David Blades, associate director, Industry Research and Analytics, AM Best. “The changing weather patterns and climate conditions have resulted in increased volatility that has negatively impacted the results of insurers in the homeowners and commercial property lines.”

The impact of the wildfire losses will be felt less by national carriers because of their considerable risk-adjusted capital positions, according to the commentary. Past weather-related events that have affected California have created earnings events for these insurers as opposed to capital events affecting their balance sheet strength. However, because of unfavorable results over the last few years, State Farm General Insurance Company, the most concentrated California carrier from a total property insurance perspective, has sought significant rate increases for homeowners, condo owners and renters in the state, in addition to announcing plans to substantially decrease its policy count. Other insurers also have sought rate increases and taken initiatives to shrink their portfolios or cease adding new exposures.

California recently implemented regulations that would allow the cost of reinsurance as a factor in pricing and also allow the use of catastrophe models to account for mitigation efforts by homeowners, businesses and communities. “A wildfire catastrophe model currently under review by the state could enable insurers to better price this risk going forward, but the risk of wildfire is very high and very persistent. The effectiveness of the program in reducing insured losses will boil down to affordability and the availability of appropriate coverage,” said Sridhar Manyem, senior director, Industry Research and Analytics, AM Best.

To access the full copy of this commentary, please visit http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=350343.

AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specializing in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City. For more information, visit www.ambest.com.

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