Best’s Commentary: Prolonged U.S. Tariffs Likely to Weigh on Insurers’ Loss Costs

The planned imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with increased tariffs on China, will have a negative effect on the insurance industry and more specifically impact the U.S. homeowners’ and auto lines of business, according to a new AM Best commentary.

President Trump imposed a 25% duty charge on imports from Canada and Mexico on March 4, 2025; a day later his administration announced a one-month reprieve from the tariffs for U.S. automakers, with some reports suggesting that a compromise agreement might be in the offing. Tariffs on Chinese imports are set to increase by an additional 10% above previously announced tariffs. The three countries are the largest trading partners of the United States in terms of imports and exports.

AM Best revised its market segment outlook for the U.S. personal auto segment to stable from negative in November 2024 as personal auto insurers’ rate increases became more closely aligned with loss-cost trends. Any inflationary impact due to the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, which are closely interconnected with the U.S. auto industry, will be negative as shortages and increased prices for parts will be reflected in loss-cost trends. This is particularly impactful given the close linkage of personal auto lines.

“Given the supply chains that the U.S. auto industry has established with Canada and Mexico, any disruptions and inflationary impacts due to the tariffs will be a credit negative for carriers,” said Sridhar Manyem, senior director, AM Best. “The more recent fleets of cars come equipped with advanced engineering and electronics and cost more to repair and replace.”

While the tariff dispute is focused on the U.S. measures and countermeasures by Canada, Mexico and China, its impact may reverberate globally. Potential impacts include slower economic growth; pressure on the insurance sector given the high correlation between a country’s GDP and insurance market growth. These measures may also present challenges for emerging economies that are closely tied to trade and foreign investments; and rising uncertainty surrounding supply chains, inflation impacts, investment uncertainty and underwriting, which most likely would tilt toward the downside.

Over the past few years, there have been instances of higher costs for materials and labor following hurricanes and wildfires, as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic. Tariffs can exacerbate this trend for homeowners’ insurers as building materials such as lumber will become more costly and replacement costs will increase beyond expectations.

Other areas of the insurance industry that may be affected include:

• Life insurers will be affected due to the increase in overall market volatility and interest rate volatility as it will be a challenge to hedge guarantees on the liability side of the balance sheet.
• The asset side of insurers’ balance sheets will be under pressure as increasing inflation could lead to negative effects on bond values amid increased fears of a recession.

To access the full copy of this commentary, please visit http://www3.ambest.com/bestweek/purchase.asp?record_code=351866.

AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specializing in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City. For more information, visit www.ambest.com.

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