Omdia forecasts show that Nintendo Switch 2 will sell nearly 15 million units globally in 2025, following its confirmed launch date of June 5.

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Switch 2 vs Switch installed base over time, cycle-aligned, millions

This would put the Switch 2 ahead of its predecessor by around 10% during its first calendar year on the market. Historical Omdia data reveals 13.4 million Nintendo Switch systems were sold in 2017, despite its earlier March release. The key factors driving this momentum include a strong user base – Omdia estimates 105 million Switch consoles remained in active use at the end of 2024, providing Nintendo with a solid foundation for the next generation.

A key first-party title also supports Omdia’s forecast. Mario Kart World headlines Nintendo’s first-party line-up for 2025, is exclusive to Nintendo Switch 2, and offers a visible generational leap over Mario Kart 8. Close to one in two Switch owners have purchased predecessor Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, making it the ideal sequel to attach to the new hardware.

However, although Switch 2 will exceed sales in the first year for the original Switch in 2017, Omdia believes that by year 4, Switch 2 will have sold fewer units than at its predecessor’s equivalent point. This is primarily down to the fourth year in the original Switch’s cycle coinciding with Covid lockdowns, which provided an enormous boost to the games industry.

Since Nintendo revitalized the dedicated handheld gaming devices market with the original Switch, new entrants such as Steam Deck, PlayStation Portal, and other PC handheld gaming devices have expanded options for players.

Yet the Switch and Switch 2 remain the only standalone platforms in this space – players must purchase the hardware to access Nintendo’s ecosystem of content. As a result, the Switch 2 is poised to cement Nintendo’s leadership in this space. Omdia’s Games Handhelds Sales Metrics Database currently forecasts that both Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch 2 hardware will command a dominant 85% share of handheld sales volumes in 2025.

However, Switch 2 will not be without challenges, not least in terms of Nintendo competing with itself throughout the lifecycle of the device. The company has released over 100 first-party titles for the original Switch, with around three-quarters of them selling at least 1 million copies each.

These games will be brought forward to the new generation, but most were already highly polished on the existing Nintendo Switch hardware.

“First-party software is the primary content driver for Switch hardware adoption, a stark contrast to PlayStation and Xbox,” said James McWhirter, Senior Analyst in Omdia’s Games team. “Nintendo will need to work hard to communicate a clear generational leap with the Switch 2 throughout its life cycle, as its new games will exist alongside the extensive library of previous titles that do not require a console upgrade for users to enjoy.”

ABOUT OMDIA

Omdia, part of Informa TechTarget, Inc. (Nasdaq: TTGT), is a technology research and advisory group. Our deep knowledge of tech markets combined with our actionable insights empower organizations to make smart growth decisions.

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