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Jeff Kagan: Thinking beyond today’s AI gold-rush mentality

Jeff Kagan: Thinking beyond today's AI gold-rush mentality

Who are some real, long-term artificial intelligence winners?

Every time a new technology is introduced there seems to be a gold-rush mentality that takes over for the first several years. That is what seems to be happening with AI today. This technology has actually been with us for decades in one form or another, but suddenly it has broken through the noise level and is now the focus for growth in company after company, industry after industry.

We have lived through this kind of opportunity and challenge before. Several times in fact. This is similar to the smartphone world where every decade another player led. Think Motorola, Blackberry then iPhone and Android. Each level brought new waves of growth.

This also happened in the 1990s with the internet and broadband. Suddenly, every company in every industry transformed. Then around the year 2000, things suddenly changed. All of a sudden reality hit. Most speculation ended. Only the winners continued to grow.

That is happening today with AI as well. It has been with us for decades. Each wave was intoxicating.

Remember IBM Watson. It was launched on the television game show Jeopardy about 15 years ago. Then it grew threw the World of Watson conferences for years, until it crested, then ultimately collapsed.

Early days everyone wins, then reality hits

All of these examples show how in the early days, nearly every company in the new space thrived. However, going forward only a few lasted.

Today, new companies with new ideas still pop up, but the speculative players have collapsed over the long-term.

Knowing the right companies like Amazon.com, Facebook or Meta, Apple, Google, Qualcomm and others became the cornerstone of every investor. In this atmosphere, investing and choosing the long-term winners is key.

Which companies will be long-term winners in AI?

The same thing that happened in all these other spaces will happen with AI. Except, artificial intelligence will be faster and larger than ever before.

Today, AI is a new technology that has captured the imagination of the world It is growing and changing faster than anything we have ever seen before.

We focus on both the good and bad of this transformative technology. And just like with the Internet, there is plenty of both.

That’s why today in AI, it seems everything seems to be doing well. However, there will come a time when we cross over that line in the sand and only substantive companies will survive.

That’s what we need to keep our eyes open for. We must stay focused and make sure we are on the winning side of the ever changing, latest AI growth wave.

More from Jeff Kagan: Classroom AI is a good thing, Khan Academy CEO says

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