ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

AutoZone And Why It Will Soon Be A $3,000 Stock

Autozone stock price storefront

Sometimes a dodgy earnings report can be a blessing in disguise. A revenue miss in last month's fiscal Q3 report for AutoZone Inc (NYSE: AZO) sent their shares down more than 10%, upsetting a rally that's effectively been underway since March 2021. Over that timeframe, their shares have jumped as much as 140% and come closer and closer to hitting the $3,000 mark. 

Last month's dip following the softer-than-expected sales number threatened to put that milestone on the back burner, but it's starting to look more and more like that was NYSE: AZO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a solid buying opportunity. And with AutoZone shares again trending higher, we here at MarketBeat think they could soon hit the $3,000 marker. Let's take a look at some of the reasons why. 

Fresh Upgrades

Firstly, AutoZone shares have just received two significant upgrades. Earlier this month, Evercore ISI, who weren't waiting too long after the post-earnings dip to encourage investors back in, upgraded its rating to Outperform from Market Perform. The team there made the move on the basis that AutoZone is well-positioned to achieve profitable market share growth and maintain stable margins within the favorable auto aftermarket.

Analyst Greg Melich and his team noted that the recent decline in AutoZone's share price opened up an appealing entry point for investors, considering the company's leading position in a favored subsector of the auto aftermarket retail industry. They added that while an immediate return to double-digit growth in the "Do-It-For-Me" segment is not expected, achieving decent single-digit growth in the near term is doable, with the potential for further acceleration over time.

Evercore also believes that a substantial increase in commercial growth will be sufficient to drive approximately 3% growth in same-store sales. Additionally, they anticipate margin recovery following years of investment in pricing.

Echoing Evercore's comments, the team over at UBS also boosted their AutoZone rating for similar reasons last week. According to a team of analysts led by Michael Lasser, AutoZone is on track and looking good to snatch up market share, while their profit outlook is improving as supply chain issues dissipate. This is something investors would have been watching closely for, as it was specific headwinds here that did the damage to their Q3 revenue number.  

The UBS team upgraded their rating on AutoZone shares from Neutral to Buy and also emphasized the attractive buying opportunity created by the current valuation and the recent dip. They noted that the market's perception of AutoZone's commercial prospects had dampened in recent months, causing compression in its multiple.

But as AutoZone demonstrates its ability to navigate these risks successfully, its shares have the potential to rally. UBS' fresh price target of $2,900 is a testament to this. It represents an additional upside from here of about 20% and would put shares within a whisker of $3,000. 

Share Buyback

Aside from having two solid bull voices in their corner, AutoZone shares are also set to benefit from a fresh $2 billion share buyback scheme that was approved last week. This is one of the clearest signals a company's leadership can give to the market that they believe their shares are trading well below fair value. By being willing to put their money where their mouth is, they're giving any investors thinking about getting involved some extra confidence. 

With these bullish updates and added volume on the bid, it's no surprise that AutoZone shares are already well underway to undoing all of the damage from last month's dip. As NYSE: AZO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MarketBeat noted earlier this month, even with its comparatively high price point, AutoZone is still a deal. A low price-to-earnings ratio of 19 puts paid to any concerns that they're overbought, while fundamental industry tailwinds such as above-average inflation and increased miles driven in the U.S. bodes well for their longer-term outlook. 

Yes, they slipped a little last quarter, but all signs point to shares already trending higher, which means they'll soon be knocking at the door of $3,000. 

Recent Quotes

View More
Symbol Price Change (%)
AMZN  208.39
-1.61 (-0.77%)
AAPL  264.72
+0.54 (0.20%)
AMD  198.62
-1.59 (-0.79%)
BAC  49.81
-0.02 (-0.04%)
GOOG  306.36
-5.07 (-1.63%)
META  653.56
+5.38 (0.83%)
MSFT  398.55
+5.81 (1.48%)
NVDA  182.48
+5.29 (2.99%)
ORCL  149.25
+3.85 (2.65%)
TSLA  403.32
+0.81 (0.20%)
Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.