ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

Will a Decrease in Housing Starts Hurt Homebuilder Stocks?

Can you benefit from homebuilder stocks? Image of a construction worker working on a home

Homebuilders traded lower as a group on July 19, ending the session down 0.20% after the National Association of Homebuilders reported that June housing starts fell more than expected. 

As a whole, homebuilder stocks were down for the session. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA: XHB) and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS: ITB) closed fractionally lower, having made up some losses earlier in the day. 

The largest homebuilders by market capitalization include D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI)Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM) and Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL). All closed lower in the session, although numerous other builders ended the day with gains. 

Housing Starts Down by 8%

According to NAHB, housing starts fell by 8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million from May's adjusted rate of around 1.56 million. That figure includes which include new single- and multi-family dwelling units. 

NAHB uses the term "seasonally adjusted annual rate" for housing starts to account for predictable seasonal fluctuations in construction activity. The seasonally adjusted annual rate provides a standardized measure to help analyze underlying trends in the housing market throughout the year.

According to NAHB, the June reading of 1.43 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. 

Single-family starts decreased 7% from May to a 935,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. That's also 7.4% lower than a year ago. 

The multi-family sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased by 9.9% to an annualized 499,000 pace.

June Drop Bigger than Forecasted

The drop in June was larger than expected, with analysts forecasting a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.48 million housing starts. 

Homebuilder stocks have been trending higher since October, posting strong gains recently. The XHB ETF is up 40.57% year to date, and the ITB ETF has returned 47.14%. 

That gives some context to the June decline in housing starts. According to NAHB, despite the number of single-family units under construction being down 17% versus a year ago at 688,000, the number of apartments under construction increased to 994,000, the highest since May 1973.

Permits for housing starts also dropped in June. 

Overall permits decreased by 3.7% from May's reading to a 1.44 million unit annualized rate. 

Multi-Family Fell Faster than Single-Family Construction

Multi-family construction, which includes apartments and condos, fell at a faster rate than single-family homes. That was also true for permits. 

The NAHB's monthly data came from the organization's builder sentiment data. In July, builder sentiment for single-family homes increased by one point to reach 56, as reflected by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. 

This marks the seventh consecutive month of gains and the highest level since June 2022. Builders attribute the rising demand for new construction to low supply in the resale market, as many homeowners with low interest rates aren't selling, as their rate on another home would be higher. 

In a statement, NAHB chair Alicia Huey, an Alabama homebuilder, said, "The lack of resale inventory means prospective home buyers who have not been priced out of the market continue to seek out new construction in greater numbers." 

However, she added that in addition to ongoing concerns about increasing interest rates, builders continue to grapple with supply-side challenges, including a scarcity of electrical transformer equipment and growing concerns about lot availability.

Amid Slowdown, Housing Shortage Remains

The situation for homebuilders isn't cut-and-dried. While there's a slowdown in housing starts, there's a continuing housing shortage in the U.S. 

Not only is the market experiencing the current problem of existing homeowners not selling, but the roots of the problem go back to the 2008 housing market crash. Homebuilders went out of business, and construction and trades workers found new careers. Even as the millennials began buying homes, construction never picked up to meet demand. 

With the industry now recovered and busier than ever, what should investors make of the current slowdown? 

Given the year-to-date gains in homebuilders' stocks, a pullback wouldn't be a surprise if investors take the latest news as a reason to pocket some profits. Regardless, it's always wise to use caution in any stock or asset class after a lengthy run-up. 

Among the largest homebuilders, NVR and Toll Brothers traded lower after hours on July 19. D.R. Horton, Lennar and PulteGroup were all trading higher. 

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.