ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

Hormel: A Potential Buy Despite Post-Earnings Decline

Hormel billboard sign

Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) stock investors are living the expression that what goes up must come down. HRL stock is down 8.8% in midday trading after the company posted mixed earnings. This movement is almost exactly opposite to the price movement in HRL stock after the company's previous earnings report in February 2023, when the stock gapped up sharply.  

Investors have seen much of their 2024 gains wiped away and may wonder what to do with Hormel stock, which is down 11% in the last 12 months. The answer may be to stay the course. This sharp price movement may be a technology-induced overreaction to a report that wasn't as bad as it may seem. 

Hormel's Earnings: Slight Decline but Beating Expectations

Hormel's revenue of $2.89 billion missed analysts' estimates of $2.97 billion, which was the same number the company had reported in the prior year. The company continues to show uneven performance across its multiple categories and brands.  

For example, the company reported volume growth in its food-service business but noted that those gains were offset by weakness in its international and retail businesses. The same was true with brands like Skippy, Spam, Planter's, and Hormel Black Label bacon, showing an increase in net sales that was offset by declines in other areas.  

However, the bottom line tells a different story. Although earnings were down two cents per share year over year, they did beat analysts' expectations by two cents per share. That makes it two consecutive quarters of better-than-expected earnings and increased operating cash flows.  

When it came to guidance, Hormel also had positive news to report. The company reaffirmed its outlook for net sales growth of between 1% and 3%. It also updated its expectations for diluted net earnings per share (EPS) to $1.45 to $1.55 (from $1.43 to $1.57). Plus, it increased its expectations for adjusted diluted EPS to a range between $1.55 and $1.65 (from $1.51 to $1.65).  

Is High-Frequency Trading to Blame for Hormel's Stock Volatility?

Investors see price action like what you're seeing in HML stock all the time. Stocks move like this due to high-frequency trading (HFT), which is guided by algorithms that look for keywords in a company's earnings report and can execute buy and sell orders at lightning speed.  

That looks to be part of what's happening with Hormel stock after earnings. Analysts have been bearish on Hormel for some time. The Hormel analyst ratings on MarketBeat give the stock a consensus rating of Reduce, which is equivalent to Sell.  

The bottom line for investors is that it wasn't going to take much bad news to confirm this negative sentiment.  

Hormel stock chart

Why Hormel's High-Yield Dividend Makes It a Solid Buy

Many of the issues surrounding Hormel are common among many consumer staples stocks. That also means they are likely to be temporary and could turn around when economic conditions improve. That doesn't mean there won't be more downside risk to the stock in the short term. However, you should consider that many consumers are choosing to eat at home, and Hormel's high-protein offerings may help make a dollar stretch further. 

Even if growth is slow, one of the attractions of HRL stock is its high-yield dividend. Hormel is a dividend king that has increased its dividend for 59 consecutive years and has a 3.58% yield. Despite the headwinds, there's no reason to believe the dividend is in danger.  

Recent Quotes

View More
Symbol Price Change (%)
AMZN  229.53
+0.42 (0.18%)
AAPL  278.78
-1.92 (-0.68%)
AMD  217.97
+1.99 (0.92%)
BAC  53.95
+0.07 (0.13%)
GOOG  322.09
+3.70 (1.16%)
META  673.42
+11.89 (1.80%)
MSFT  483.16
+2.32 (0.48%)
NVDA  182.41
-0.97 (-0.53%)
ORCL  217.58
+3.25 (1.52%)
TSLA  455.00
+0.47 (0.10%)
Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.