Intuitive Machines Inc. (NASDAQ: LUNR) stock is up approximately 23% two days after the company reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings. For the moment, the bullish earnings are taking investors’ minds off the company’s unsuccessful Athena lunar mission. However, having both events occur in the same month and seeing the different reactions from investors is a reminder of why it’s important to separate the news from the noise, particularly with speculative stocks.
[content-module:CompanyOverview|NASDAQ: LUNR]Intuitive Machines is one of the small-cap companies to watch in the growing space business. Investors can measure the sector's potential by the fact that, despite the recent downturn, LUNR stock is up 49% in the last 12 months, making it one of the best-performing aerospace stocks.
The diversified space company’s mission is to “open access to the Moon for the progress of humanity.” Its four business units are Lunar Access Services, Orbital Services, Lunar Data Services, and Space Products and Infrastructure. By diversifying its revenue streams, Intuitive Machines has mitigated the risks associated with reliance on a single source of income.
However, as the company’s Athena mission shows, investing in space stocks comes with risk. It’s up to every investor to decide if the potential reward outweighs that risk.
There Will Be More Days Like This
It’s impossible to talk about LUNR stock without looking at the company’s “failed” mission in early March. I put failed in quotes because the company’s lunar module did land on the moon’s surface. However, it landed in a sideways position and inside a crater about 250 meters from its intended landing spot. Because it relied on solar power, the batteries shut down before it could collect the data it was seeking.
Athena was the company’s second lunar mission. The first, Odysseus, had a similar problem on the landing. However, Odysseus was able to operate for approximately 10 days and complete most of its mission’s objectives. It should also be noted that this was the first time the United States had landed on the moon since 1972.
That's the nature of space exploration. Failure is not only an option, but it can also be expected. However, another manned lunar landing is a key priority of the U.S. government. That's backed up by the contract that Intuitive Machines received from NASA for two additional lunar missions. The first of which may happen later this year.
Nevertheless, these are expensive failures. Given the fairly high risk of failure, investors would be wise to exercise prudence when taking a position in LUNR stock.
Bullish Earnings Provide Welcome Support
[content-module:Forecast|NASDAQ: LUNR]Although timing the market is usually a fruitless effort, earnings reports can provide clarity.
In the case of Intuitive Machines, investors cheered a 79% year-over-year (YOY) increase in the space exploration company’s revenue.
The $228 million in full-year revenue was nearly three times higher on a YOY basis.
Plus, the company reported a backlog of over $328 million and forecast between $250 million and $300 million in revenue for 2025.
On the other hand, the company continues to be unprofitable, with an operating loss of $13.4 million, which was nearly double the $7.5 million loss reported in the prior year.
However, it did achieve its second consecutive quarter of positive gross margin.
LUNR Stock Fell Just Shy of a Key Technical Indicator
The bump in LUNR stock fell just shy of the stock crossing over its 200-day simple moving average. Had the stock managed that, the bulls might have more optimism. As of the market close on March 26, the stock was about 10% below that level. It also hit resistance at a level once made in October 2024.
But is the worst over? Since the earnings report, analysts have stuck with LUNR stock. The Intuitive Machines analyst forecast on MarketBeat has a consensus rating of $16, an 83.5% improvement from the stock’s price as of March 26, 2025.
Know What You Own
Intuitive Machines is as much a moonshot for investors as it is for space exploration. The company’s two missions show the risks inherent in lunar landings. The company’s lack of profitability presents the biggest risk to investors. A clean balance sheet and a solid backlog make the stock enticing.
However, two underwhelming missions have highlighted the risks of investing in LUNR. Few ETFs hold the stock, but one exception is the Procure Space ETF (NASDAQ: UFO), which may offer investors space industry exposure with less individual stock risk.
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