There are high expectations for NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) Q1 performance ahead of the earnings release, but perhaps not bullish enough. The market is poised to surge 50% or more with a positive catalyst, and it appears one is on the doorstep. This is a look at the NVIDIA market ahead of its earnings release, what it is expecting, and why this semiconductor stock could rise above $200 before the end of summer, maybe sooner.
NVIDIA’s Chart Has at Least Five Bullish Convergences
In the world of technical analysis, a bullish signal is only as strong as its support. A signal alone is not enough to significantly move a market, but several signals converging together often are. In this case, NVIDIA has at least five converging signals, including the MACD histogram, the stochastic oscillator, a trend-following price bounce, a move above critical EMAs, and a Golden Crossover in those EMAs.
The MACD histogram is a measure of momentum, indicating that momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish, and there is ample room for the market to run. That signal is echoed in the stochastic, which also shows a bullish swing and a market about to cross a critical line, the upper signal line, a sign of market strength.
Those signals converge with the price action, which is showing a strong, trend-following bounce, likewise coincident with the bottom of the 2025 trading range, another crucial technical price support target.
Moving on to the EMAs or exponential moving averages, the market rebound in May has the price action above the EMAs, a sign of broad market support. The EMAs include the 30- and 150-day EMAs, representing short-term traders and longer-term investors, and they are forming a Golden Crossover. The Golden Crossover occurs when the shorter EMA crosses above the longer EMA from below.
At the same time, both indicators point higher, signaling that short-term buyers and long-term buyers are in alignment and actively buying.
The takeaway is that this market is bullish, and higher prices are more than likely. The risk is that resistance remains at the $140 level, potentially capping gains. However, a move above the $140 level is expected, provided a solid report from NVIDIA, and it will bring some robust targets into play. The simple target is a move equal to the May rebound, a movement equal to the 2025 trading range magnitude, or $60 above the critical resistance point, resulting in a move above $200.
Analysts Expect Robust Growth, Unsure How Much
[content-module:Forecast|NASDAQ: NVDA]Regardless of the revision trend, analysts expect a robust 66% revenue gain at the consensus, as MarketBeat reported, two days before the release. However, the bar may not be set high enough due to unknowns, such as the exact impact of restrictions on exports to China in Q1 and the long term and the offsetting influences of robust industry demand and the new deals in Saudi Arabia.
The deals in Saudi Arabia alone are worth billions in annual revenue gains, potentially resulting in high-single-digit to mid-teens revenue growth relative to 2025, so the guidance will be a critical detail.
Regarding the analysts’ sentiment and price target forecasts, the revision trend ahead of the earnings release is sufficiently bearish to have the stock on MarketBeat’s Most Downgraded Stocks list. The caveat is that, while down slightly compared to the prior month, the consensus in late May forecasts a 27% upside for this Moderate Buy-rated stock, with an additional 30% at the high end of the range.
That puts the market near $220, aligning with the technical targets, and there is a bullish bias to the sentiment. MarketBeat tracks 44 analysts covering NVIDIA, and 85% of them rate it as a "Buy" outright.
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