NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock price moved up to set a new all-time high in late June, and what comes next will be another significant updraft in share prices. Regardless of the cause, whether it is FOMO, results, analyst trends, institutional activity, short-covering, or a combination of these factors, this stock is moving higher, and the technical outlook remains robust. Very robust.
The low-ball estimate based on the chart patterns is a move equal to the trading range that preceded the breakout. That’s good for a move above $200 or nearly 40% relative to the late June trading levels.
The bull case scenario, which is the most likely scenario, involves a percentage movement equal to the trading range, or approximately 68%. That puts this market above $250, or a nearly 70% upside in addition to the gains this stock has already posted.
The Market Is Targeting a $200 Handle for NVIDIA Shares
These targets are already in the market’s sights. Analysts have been raising their estimates since early spring, leading sentiment toward the high-end range of $250. The high-end range is notably increasing as the year progresses and is likely to continue moving higher following the August fiscal Q2 earnings report.
The latest revisions include a late June update from Loop Capital, which increased its target to $250, setting the high. Other recent revisions include price target increases from Truist, Barclays, and Rosenblatt that align with a $200+ outlook.
The charts are not without risks. The stochastic on the weekly chart has risen to overbought territory, indicating potential for price pullbacks. However, stochastic can remain in overbought territory for an extended period, given a bullish market, which the MACD indicates. The MACD histogram is converging with the new highs, revealing a strengthening market capable of sustaining an uptrend.
Volume is the bigger risk. The weekly chart also reveals that volume is in decline, a factor that can undermine the rally. With this in play, the appetite for the stock at a higher price will dwindle, increasing the risk of pullbacks. The caveat is that the Q2 earnings release is a potential catalyst for increased volume, and other potential catalysts, such as the reopening of China to advanced semiconductor business, can reinvigorate market appetite.
NVIDIA’s Q2 Results Will Catalyze the Market
The forecasts for NVIDIA’s Q2 results have remained relatively steady since the start of the period, despite the uncertainty surrounding the impact of sales in China. The offsetting factor is the accelerating deal volume, new projects planned in Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, and numerous EU nations, which should more than make up the difference. The critical detail will be the guidance; assuming it reflects these developments, the market should have no trouble moving higher.
The institutional activity aligns with an uptrend. The institutional selling increased in 2025 and is aiding volatility, but the buying ramped to more than offset it, leaving the balance of activity bullish for Q1 and Q2. The group owns 65% of the stock, providing a strong tailwind and solid support base likely to keep this market in rally mode this year.
NVIDIA’s Cash: Don’t Forget About the Cash
NVIDIA’s business is booming and it is making cash by the fistful. The highlights at the end of FQ1 2025 include more than $53.5 billion in cash, up 24% sequentially and 106% in the trailing five quarters, with an expectation for cash to continue building.
At this level, the company is net cash relative to its total liability and can easily produce a significant capital return for investors. Whether that will be an aggressive dividend increase, a special dividend, or an accelerated buyback remains to be seen.
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