How do professional traders really start their day? Well, before anything else, it is always a question of whether the markets are in a risk-on or risk-off mood. Then, the real work begins in finding out which industries and stocks are best primed to ride this initial bias. With this in mind, retail investors can emulate the best in the business by understanding the market’s mood.
Easier said than done, there is one big clue in the S&P 500 index. After falling into a brief bear market during a 20% decline from highs in April 2025, stocks have achieved a record recovery in less than a quarter since the bearish sell-off, an achievement that is almost unprecedented and should be taken as initial evidence of a risk-on environment. Still, the question is which industries and stocks are the ones best prepared to deliver outsized returns.
As most investors have seen through headlines or price action, the technology sector led the recovery higher in the S&P 500, though not all names in the space are created equal. When it comes to risk-on, there is nothing as raw as cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, which is why analysts have determined that Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) is likely to be the winner in this race.
Coinbase Stock: Inside the Eye of the Storm
Being one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States, Coinbase handles most of the volume seen in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to accommodate retail investment interest, and that makes it a prime risk-on candidate in itself.
By collecting fees and spreads on each transaction, Coinbase is effectively stacking up financial momentum to set it up for a potential earnings beat in the coming quarters. As most investors are aware, the markets are forward-looking in nature, so their expectations for a better quarter are likely being reflected in the stock price today.
Coinbase has led a neck-breaking quarterly performance of up to 68.8%, with 31% of that rally happening in the past month alone. It would be reasonable to question whether this future growth is already priced into the stock, though, considering how aggressive this latest run has been.
Now trading at a new 52-week high, this question is harder to answer than ever before, considering that this is now uncharted territory for those who rely on the stock price chart. However, for fundamentalists, there might be a better way to answer this question.
The Market’s Take on Coinbase Stock
As of late June 2025, H. Rawat from Sanford C. Bernstein decided to tackle the concern of whether upside is already priced into Coinbase stock today. By reiterating an Overweight rating on the company, this analyst begins to put doubts to rest, especially now that a $510 per share valuation has been awarded to Coinbase stock.
From its current trading position, this view would imply that an additional 42% upside is possible for the company moving forward, a view that may be justified by the volatility being experienced across the cryptocurrency markets. As Bitcoin also approaches a new all-time high, both retail and institutional interest will rise.
If this does play out, then it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect Coinbase stock to report a much better quarter as well. And keeping institutional interest in mind, it seems that those from Swedbank AB decided that this may not be the ceiling for Coinbase yet.
By boosting their holdings in the stock by 9% as of late June 2025, this group now holds up to $6.1 million worth of Coinbase stock. This is a typical institutional footprint, as stocks that break out of 52-week highs to reach new levels tend to attract funds that employ a momentum buying strategy.
A Premium Moat Price
Coinbase stock warrants a premium compared to its peers, given its control over most of the American cryptocurrency exchange volume. This is why the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of up to 67.2x today, compared to the rest of the finance sector’s average valuation of 19.6x.
As seasoned market participants know, markets will always be willing to pay a premium for stocks that justify one. In the case of Coinbase, the company's market share, coupled with an overall risk-on environment, certainly justifies a premium based on its underlying growth potential.
When looking at other fundamental factors in Coinbase stock, investors can see that Wall Street analysts now forecast up to $2.65 in earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter of 2026. Compared to today’s reported $1.94 in EPS, this forecast calls for as much as 37% earnings growth to keep driving the stock higher.
All investors need to worry about now is whether Coinbase beats this estimate. Given how cryptocurrencies have been trading lately, they might as well do it, and analysts might call for even higher valuations.
Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?
Before you make your next trade, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis.
Our team has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and none of the big name stocks were on the list.
They believe these five stocks are the five best companies for investors to buy now...
