What Happened?
Shares of electric vehicle pioneer Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) fell 4.6% in the morning session after the major indices declined sharply (Nasdaq down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 1.1%) as investors appeared to be locking in some gains in a year marked by significant progress in the Fed's effort to deliver a soft landing—taming inflation without causing more damage to the economy—despite early signs of weakness in the labor market.
With two more trading days to wrap up the year, investors are likely hoping for a "Santa Claus Rally." So far, the Nasdaq has climbed more than 30% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained over 25%, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy.
The improved momentum, especially in the second half of the year, was fueled by the ongoing investment in AI within the tech sector, the Fed's continued dovish shift as inflation cooled, enabling the Powell-led committee to deliver three rate cuts (0.5% in September and 0.25% each in November and December).
Additionally, the November 2024 elections sparked optimism for more business-friendly regulations in energy, tech, and industrials following Donald Trump's return to the presidency.
Nonetheless, the outlook for 2025 remains clouded by the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts as well as potential changes in trade policy and corporate taxes once the Trump administration takes over. The path forward is marked by uncertainty.
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What The Market Is Telling Us
Tesla’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 107 moves greater than 2.5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 9 days ago when the stock dropped 7.1% as stocks tumbled (Nasdaq down 2%, S&P 500 down 1.5%) after the Fed signaled that there would be fewer cuts ahead than expected during the December 2024 FOMC meeting. This announcement followed the committee's decision to reduce rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.25%–4.5%, which was largely in line with consensus forecasts.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Fed is expected to implement two quarter-point rate cuts, suggesting that future policy adjustments will be implemented at a slower pace, with the committee reiterating a data-driven approach that factors future inflation data and updates on the labor market.
As a reminder, the driver of a stock's value is the sum of its future cash flows discounted back to today. The result of lower interest rates, all else equal, is higher stock valuations. This is especially true for higher-growth stocks, such as those in the technology sector, where the current value depends more on cash flows many years out in the future.
Tesla is up 75.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $436.59 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $479.86 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Tesla’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $15,216.
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