ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

1 Oversold Stock Primed to Rebound and 2 We Avoid

SG Cover Image

Hitting a new 52-week low can be a pivotal moment for any stock. These floors often mark either the beginning of a turnaround story or confirmation that a company faces serious headwinds.

While market timing can be an extremely profitable strategy, it has burned many investors and requires rigorous analysis - something we specialize in at StockStory. Keeping that in mind, here is one stock poised to prove the bears wrong and two where the skepticism is well-placed.

Two Stocks to Sell:

Sweetgreen (SG)

One-Month Return: -15%

Founded in 2007 by three Georgetown University alum, Sweetgreen (NYSE: SG) is a casual quick service chain known for its healthy salads and bowls.

Why Do We Think Twice About SG?

  1. Suboptimal cost structure is highlighted by its history of operating margin losses
  2. 7.3 percentage point decline in its free cash flow margin over the last year reflects the company’s increased investments to defend its market position
  3. Unfavorable liquidity position could lead to additional equity financing that dilutes shareholders

At $7.53 per share, Sweetgreen trades at 37.2x forward EV-to-EBITDA. If you’re considering SG for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.

Western Union (WU)

One-Month Return: -0.5%

With a history dating back to 1851 when it began as a telegraph company, Western Union (NYSE: WU) is a global money transfer service that enables consumers and businesses to send funds across borders and currencies, typically within minutes.

Why Do We Think WU Will Underperform?

  1. Products and services are facing significant end-market challenges during this cycle as sales have declined by 3.6% annually over the last five years
  2. Earnings per share were flat over the last five years and fell short of the peer group average
  3. Negative return on equity shows management lost money while trying to expand the business

Western Union is trading at $8.16 per share, or 4.7x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why WU doesn’t pass our bar.

One Stock to Buy:

CSW (CSW)

One-Month Return: -1.6%

With over two centuries of combined operations manufacturing and supplying, CSW (NASDAQ: CSW) offers special chemicals, coatings, sealants, and lubricants for various industries.

Why Are We Backing CSW?

  1. Impressive 19.6% annual revenue growth over the last five years indicates it’s winning market share this cycle
  2. Incremental sales significantly boosted profitability as its annual earnings per share growth of 25.9% over the last five years outstripped its revenue performance
  3. Strong free cash flow margin of 15.5% enables it to reinvest or return capital consistently, and its rising cash conversion increases its margin of safety

CSW’s stock price of $242.13 implies a valuation ratio of 22.8x forward P/E. Is now the time to initiate a position? Find out in our full research report, it’s free for active Edge members.

Stocks We Like Even More

Trump’s April 2025 tariff bombshell triggered a massive market selloff, but stocks have since staged an impressive recovery, leaving those who panic sold on the sidelines.

Take advantage of the rebound by checking out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.

Recent Quotes

View More
Symbol Price Change (%)
AMZN  229.25
+2.28 (1.00%)
AAPL  269.00
+0.19 (0.07%)
AMD  258.01
-1.66 (-0.64%)
BAC  52.87
-0.15 (-0.28%)
GOOG  268.43
-1.50 (-0.56%)
META  751.44
+0.62 (0.08%)
MSFT  542.07
+10.55 (1.98%)
NVDA  201.03
+9.54 (4.98%)
ORCL  280.83
-0.57 (-0.20%)
TSLA  460.55
+8.13 (1.80%)
Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.