What Happened?
Shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) fell 7.2% in the morning session after the company narrowed its full-year 2025 delivery forecast.
The company adjusted its guidance to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles. This tightened the previous outlook, which was between 40,000 and 46,000 cars, and lowered the midpoint of the forecast by 500 vehicles. The more cautious outlook appeared to worry investors, overshadowing an otherwise positive third-quarter report. For the quarter, Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles, a 32% increase that surpassed analyst estimates. The company also produced 10,720 vehicles during the same period.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Rivian’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 31 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 2 days ago when the stock dropped 4% as a weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence report for September sparked concerns about the economic outlook.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2, its lowest reading since April. This decline was driven by a more pessimistic view of both current and future conditions. The Present Situation Index, which assesses current business and labor market conditions, fell by 7.0 points. More critically, the Expectations Index, a gauge of the short-term outlook, also decreased. This index has remained below 80 since February 2025, a level that historically signals a potential recession on the horizon. The weakening confidence reflects consumers' growing concerns about the labor market, which could translate to reduced spending and broader economic slowing.
Rivian is up 2.4% since the beginning of the year, but at $13.57 per share, it is still trading 19.8% below its 52-week high of $16.92 from May 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Rivian’s shares at the IPO in November 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $134.72.
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