What Happened?
Shares of technology real estate company Opendoor (NASDAQ: OPEN) fell 5.4% in the morning session after investors braced for the company's upcoming third-quarter results, with management having previously guided for a significant sequential decline in revenue and a return to negative earnings.
The company's management had projected third-quarter revenue to fall between $800 million and $875 million, a steep drop from the second quarter's $1.6 billion performance. Opendoor also expected an adjusted EBITDA loss between $21 million and $28 million, turning negative again after reaching profitability in the prior quarter. This renewed pressure on margins was attributed to the sale of an unfavorable mix of older, lower-margin inventory. The negative outlook was amplified by broader weakness in the U.S. housing market. Reports indicated the market was cooling off, with home prices starting to sag as inventory climbed to its highest level since 2019. Compounding these issues, home turnover rates sank to a 30-year low, signaling a tough environment for Opendoor's business.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Opendoor’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 98 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock gained 5.1% on the news that the stock's positive momentum continued as the company announced it would change its quarterly earnings presentation into a more accessible "Financial Open House" format, livestreamed on platforms including Robinhood. The new approach, which was set to debut on November 6, 2025, was designed to let everyday investors ask questions directly to company executives. This news followed a period of strong performance for the company. In the second quarter of 2025, Opendoor generated $1.6 billion in revenue and achieved $23 million in adjusted EBITDA, which marked its first profitable quarter since 2022. Management credited this turnaround to better marketing and a shift in strategy from a single-product approach to a distributed platform that used partner agents, a move that doubled the rate of completed cash offers.
Opendoor is up 340% since the beginning of the year, but at $7 per share, it is still trading 33.5% below its 52-week high of $10.52 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Opendoor’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $384.62.
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