What Happened?
Shares of health insurance company Clover Health (NASDAQ: CLOV) fell 24.2% in the morning session after the company reported disappointing third-quarter financial results and cut its full-year profitability forecast. While the Medicare-focused company saw its revenue climb by 50.1% compared to the previous year, its earnings per share missed forecasts. Looking ahead, Clover Health lowered its full-year guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to a midpoint of $22.5 million, which was significantly below analysts' expectations and implied a reduction from previous forecasts. The company attributed the weaker outlook to higher-than-expected medical costs and increased healthcare usage trends among its members. This guidance overshadowed its revenue, which beat Wall Street's estimates, as investors focused on the pressure on future profitability.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Clover Health’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 34 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Clover Health and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago when the stock dropped 20.3% on the news that the company reported mixed second-quarter results where rising medical costs and a wider-than-expected loss overshadowed strong revenue growth. The technology-focused insurer announced revenue of $477.6 million, which climbed past analyst forecasts, fueled by a 32% jump in Medicare Advantage membership. However, the company posted a net loss of $0.02 per share, a reversal from a profit in the same quarter last year and a miss on analyst expectations. Investors focused on the increase in the Insurance Benefits Expense Ratio (BER), a key metric showing the portion of premiums spent on medical care, which rose to 88.4%. Compounding the issue, Clover Health also raised its forecast for the full-year BER, signaling that these higher costs would likely persist. In response to the report, analysts at UBS cut their price target on the stock.
Clover Health is down 5.8% since the beginning of the year, and at $2.96 per share, it is trading 38.7% below its 52-week high of $4.82 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Clover Health’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $292.66.
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