What Happened?
Shares of AI lending platform Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) fell 13.2% in the morning session after the company reported mixed third-quarter results and provided a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast for the fourth quarter. While the artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform's earnings per share of $0.52 beat the forecast of $0.42, its third-quarter revenue of $277.1 million fell just short of the $280.6 million expected. The primary concern for investors, however, was the company's forward-looking guidance. Management projected fourth-quarter revenue to be around $288 million, which was significantly below the Wall Street consensus estimate of $306.6 million. This downbeat outlook suggested that the company's growth could slow more than anticipated, leading to a negative reaction from the market despite the quarterly profit beat.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Upstart’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 74 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Upstart and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 5 days ago when the stock gained 4.7% on the news that blockbuster quarterly results from tech titans Apple and Amazon boosted investor confidence, supported by impressive earnings from key cloud and crypto leaders, Cloudflare and Coinbase.
Amazon's shares surged after reporting that its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), saw revenue jump 20% year-over-year to $33 billion. This accelerated growth is largely attributed to the high demand for computing power required for artificial intelligence applications. Apple also contributed to the positive sentiment, topping its own quarterly estimates and forecasting a record-breaking holiday quarter. The strong performance from these industry leaders has lifted the broader market. Impressive results from key cloud and crypto leaders, Cloudflare and Coinbase strongly supported the broader tech momentum. Cloudflare reported a "beat and raise" quarter with revenue soaring 30.7% year-over-year to $562 million and billings jumping nearly 40%, signaling strong future growth. Its non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 15.3%, and Free Cash Flow grew by nearly 60%, confirming management's efficient execution, leading the company to raise its full-year EPS guidance. Concurrently, Coinbase's third-quarter results also significantly topped estimates, driven by better-than-expected trading revenue and the increasing adoption of its stablecoin, USDC. The company reported $1.87 billion in revenue and an adjusted EPS of $1.44, while its strategic acquisition of Deribit advanced its "Everything Exchange" vision, resulting in over $840 billion in derivatives trading volume and aggressive expansion across the crypto market.
Upstart is down 32.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $40.96 per share, it is trading 53.9% below its 52-week high of $88.77 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Upstart’s shares at the IPO in December 2020 would now be looking at an investment worth $1,390.
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