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MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) Exceeds Q4 Expectations But Stock Drops 12.4%

MDB Cover Image

Database software company MongoDB (MDB) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2024, with sales up 19.7% year on year to $548.4 million. The company expects next quarter’s revenue to be around $526.5 million, close to analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.28 per share was 91.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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MongoDB (MDB) Q4 CY2024 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $548.4 million vs analyst estimates of $519.1 million (19.7% year-on-year growth, 5.6% beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: $1.28 vs analyst estimates of $0.67 (91.1% beat)
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $112.5 million vs analyst estimates of $58 million (20.5% margin, 93.9% beat)
  • Management’s revenue guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $2.26 billion at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 2.8% and implying 12.6% growth (vs 19.3% in FY2025)
  • Adjusted EPS guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $2.53 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 25.4%
  • Operating Margin: -3.4%, up from -15.5% in the same quarter last year
  • Free Cash Flow Margin: 4.2%, down from 6.5% in the previous quarter
  • Customers: 54,500, up from 52,600 in the previous quarter
  • Billings: $603.4 million at quarter end, up 17.2% year on year
  • Market Capitalization: $18.94 billion

"MongoDB delivered a strong end to fiscal 2025 with 24% Atlas revenue growth and significant margin expansion. Atlas consumption in the quarter was better than expected and we continue to see good performance in new workload wins due to the flexibility, scalability and performance of the MongoDB platform. In fiscal year 2026 we expect to see stable consumption growth in Atlas, our main growth driver," said Dev Ittycheria, President and Chief Executive Officer of MongoDB.

Company Overview

Started in 2007 by the team behind Google’s ad platform, DoubleClick, MongoDB offers database-as-a-service that helps companies store large volumes of semi-structured data.

Data Storage

Data is the lifeblood of the internet and software in general, and the amount of data created is accelerating. As a result, the importance of storing the data in scalable and efficient formats continues to rise, especially as its diversity and associated use cases expand from analyzing simple, structured datasets to high-scale processing of unstructured data such as images, audio, and video.

Sales Growth

A company’s long-term sales performance can indicate its overall quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Luckily, MongoDB’s sales grew at an impressive 31.9% compounded annual growth rate over the last three years. Its growth beat the average software company and shows its offerings resonate with customers, a helpful starting point for our analysis.

MongoDB Quarterly Revenue

This quarter, MongoDB reported year-on-year revenue growth of 19.7%, and its $548.4 million of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 5.6%. Company management is currently guiding for a 16.9% year-on-year increase in sales next quarter.

Looking further ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 15.8% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last three years. Despite the slowdown, this projection is noteworthy and implies the market sees success for its products and services.

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Billings

Billings is a non-GAAP metric that is often called “cash revenue” because it shows how much money the company has collected from customers in a certain period. This is different from revenue, which must be recognized in pieces over the length of a contract.

MongoDB’s billings punched in at $603.4 million in Q4, and over the last four quarters, its growth was impressive as it averaged 25.1% year-on-year increases. This alternate topline metric grew faster than total sales, meaning the company collects cash upfront and then recognizes the revenue over the length of its contracts - a boost for its liquidity and future revenue prospects. MongoDB Billings

Customer Base

MongoDB reported 54,500 customers at the end of the quarter, a sequential increase of 1,900. That’s roughly in line with what we observed last quarter and quite a bit above what we’ve seen over the previous year, confirming that the company is maintaining its sales momentum.

MongoDB Customers

Key Takeaways from MongoDB’s Q4 Results

We were impressed by how significantly MongoDB blew past analysts’ billings, revenue, EPS, and adjusted operating income expectations this quarter. On the other hand, its full-year revenue and EPS guidance fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Zooming out, we think this was a decent quarter featuring some areas of strength but also some blemishes. The market seemed to focus on the negatives, and the stock traded down 12.4% to $231.98 immediately after reporting.

Is MongoDB an attractive investment opportunity at the current price? We think that the latest quarter is only one piece of the longer-term business quality puzzle. Quality, when combined with valuation, can help determine if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.

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