The stocks in this article have caught Wall Street’s attention in a big way, with price targets implying returns above 20%. But investors should take these forecasts with a grain of salt because analysts typically say nice things about companies so their firms can win business in other product lines like M&A advisory.

At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bullish calls are justified. Keeping that in mind, here is one stock likely to meet or exceed Wall Street’s lofty expectations and two where consensus estimates seem disconnected from reality.

Two Industrials Stocks to Sell:

Herc (HRI)

Consensus Price Target: $180.10 (60.8% implied return)

Formerly a subsidiary of Hertz Corporation and with a logo that still bears some similarities to its former parent, Herc Holdings (NYSE: HRI) provides equipment rental and related services to a wide range of industries.

Why Is HRI Not Exciting?

1. Estimated sales growth of 2.2% for the next 12 months implies demand will slow from its two-year trend
2. Earnings per share were flat over the last two years and fell short of the peer group average
3. Free cash flow margin dropped by 18 percentage points over the last five years, implying the company became more capital intensive as competition picked up

Herc’s stock price of $111.98 implies a valuation ratio of 8.5x forward price-to-earnings. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including HRI in your portfolio.

Ducommun (DCO)

Consensus Price Target: $79.20 (38.2% implied return)

California’s oldest company, Ducommun (NYSE: DCO) is a provider of engineering and manufacturing services for high-performance products primarily within the aerospace and defense industries.

Why Do We Avoid DCO?

1. Sales pipeline suggests its future revenue growth may not meet our standards as its average backlog growth of 4.9% for the past two years was weak
2. Performance over the past two years was negatively impacted by new share issuances as its earnings per share were flat while its revenue grew
3. ROIC of 4.6% reflects management’s challenges in identifying attractive investment opportunities

Ducommun is trading at $57.32 per share, or 14.6x forward price-to-earnings. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than DCO.

One Industrials Stock to Buy:

Blue Bird (BLBD)

Consensus Price Target: $52.14 (46.5% implied return)

With around a century of experience, Blue Bird (NASDAQ: BLBD) is a manufacturer of school buses and complementary parts.

Why Should You Buy BLBD?

1. Operating margin expanded by 7.6 percentage points over the last five years as it scaled and became more efficient
2. Performance over the past two years shows its incremental sales were extremely profitable, as its annual earnings per share growth of 113% outpaced its revenue gains
3. Improving returns on capital reflect management’s ability to monetize investments

At $35.60 per share, Blue Bird trades at 8.4x forward price-to-earnings. Is now the right time to buy? See for yourself in our comprehensive research report, it’s free.

Stocks We Like Even More

The market surged in 2024 and reached record highs after Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November, but questions about new economic policies are adding much uncertainty for 2025.

While the crowd speculates what might happen next, we’re homing in on the companies that can succeed regardless of the political or macroeconomic environment. Put yourself in the driver’s seat and build a durable portfolio by checking out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,183% between December 2019 and December 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like Sterling Infrastructure (+1,096% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free.